Hurricanes Beryl (2024), Floyd (1999), and Rita (2005) were notable storms from their respective seasons. Will the 2025 season produce one like these three storms? We are about to find out with the beginning of the season a little over a week away.
Start of 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Less Than 10 Days Away
About a week and a half to go until the beginning of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Seasonal forecasts have been issued. Daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and Discussions for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific have commenced. The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season began a little over a week ago. The first waves have developed in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. The latest edition of Hurricaneville’s Tracking the Tropics takes a look at what is happening now in the tropical waters.
2025 Seasonal Forecasts Wrap Up
The last of the pre-season forecasts were issued this week. The UK Meteorological Service issued its Atlantic Hurricane Season issued its forecast on Wednesday (May 21st) while NOAA issued its outlook on Thursday (May 22nd). Hurricane City’s Jim Williams issued a seasonal forecast with not only numbers of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes but also predictions on which locations could be impacted. Williams is calling for 18 to 20 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
Looking at Williams’ list of most vulnerable cities, Norfolk, Virginia tops the list followed by Nassau in the Bahamas, Pensacola (FL), Bimini in the Bahamas, and St. Augustine (FL). Norfolk was last impacted in 2023 and affected in ENSO Neutral years on 16 occasions. The Western Bahamas region is listed as high risk while the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast states are categorized as moderate risk. NOAA’s forecast indicates that there will be anywhere from 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
Of the thirteen seasonal forecasts looked at, the average was 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Keep in mind that a major hurricane is at least Category Three intensity or better on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The Hurricane City forecast is more in line with the likes of Accu-Weather, The Weather Channel, and WeatherBell in terms of the number of named storms. Williams’ projection of 12 hurricanes is the highest of all seasonal forecasts while his number of predicted major hurricanes is above the average of the 13 forecasts listed.
Keep in mind though that these seasonal forecasts are never written in stone. These projections are a means of preparing for the season, and give an idea of what could happen. All it takes is one storm to make a lasting impact on a coastal community from Maine to Texas. In addition, as Hurricane Helene showed last season, tropical storms and hurricanes can impact locations further inland and not necessarily with wind and surge. The time to prepare is now with the season about to begin and the peak portion still months away.
Daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and Discussions Commence
As part of the ramp-up to the beginning of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasons, the National Hurricane Center began issuing its daily Tropical Weather Outlooks and Discussions for both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. The Atlantic season begins on June 1st while the Eastern Pacific season got underway last Thursday. The Eastern Pacific season always begins on May 15th. Both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific seasons conclude on November 30th.
The NHC had issued Atlantic tropical outlooks back on March 17-18 for a disturbance in the Subtropical Atlantic. However, these were special outlooks. The routine of daily outlooks for the Atlantic began on the morning of May 15th. These outlooks are issued every six hours at 2:00 AM, 8:00 AM, 2:00 PM, and 8:00 PM. Accompanying these outlooks are two-day and seven-day graphical outlooks as well as a more detailed discussion. Outlooks for the Eastern Pacific began on the first day of its season.
First Waves in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Develop
One of the most crucial portions of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks and Discussions is the tracking of tropical waves and disturbances in these basins. Over the past week or so, waves have developed in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. There was a special feature in the Atlantic on May 15th that resulted from a pressure gradient that developed in the Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Northwest Africa. The first tropical wave came off the coast of Africa on May 18th.
The Eastern Pacific is usually more active by this time since the waters off the Southwest coast of Mexico are usually at levels conducive to development. The first wave of the 2025 EPAC season developed on May 19th. The wave formed along 99° West Longitude and between 6 and 13° North Latitude. The wave produced moderate convection between 5 and 13° North Latitude and east of 107° West Longitude. Activity has continued to percolate in the Eastern Pacific.
Currently in the Eastern Pacific, the NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather several hundred miles to the south of the Southern coast of Mexico. Indications are that this disturbance will become an area of low pressure early next week. Conditions are favorable for development right now and there is a 70 percent chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. No development is expected over the next 48 hours. This disturbance is in an area usually prime for development at this time of year.
Pre-Season Storms in the Atlantic
With Memorial Day Weekend upon us and the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season almost a week away, there is always speculation on whether there will be a storm that spins up before the start of the season. It has happened before and will happen again. Storms have even emerged well outside the normal timeframe of the season. An unnamed subtropical storm developed in mid-January of 2023. Tropical Storm Ana emerged on this date in 2021. Tropical Storm Arthur formed on May 16th, 2020.
Have there been any hurricanes during May or before? Yes, and it happened recently. Hurricane Alex fired up during mid-January of 2016. Starting as an extratropical system in the Central Atlantic, Alex gradually acquired tropical characteristics and became a hurricane on January 14th. Alex’s peak intensity was on the morning of January 14th with 85-mile-per-hour winds and a minimum pressure of 981 millibars or 28.97 inches of Hg. Alex eventually made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 65 mile per hour winds during the late morning of January 15th on Terceira Island in the Azores.
Looking Around the Atlantic Today
Taking a look around the Tropical Atlantic this Friday afternoon, there are no tropical features to fret about. The NHC indicates that there will be no development over the next 7 days. A couple of waves are being watched in the Central and Eastern Atlantic right now. Both of these waves are meandering across the ITCZ or Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.
One of the waves is centered several hundred miles to the South-Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic and the other is roughly midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Satellite imagery also detects the presence of Sahara Dust in the Eastern Atlantic, which is usually prevalent this time of year.