Erin – Atlantic – Latest Advisory, Recon, and Discussion

Erin - Atlantic - Latest Advisory, Recon and Discussion - Satellite Image off Outer Banks.
Satellite image of Hurricane Erin at Noon on August 21, 2025. Erin has weakened to a Category Two Hurricane, but it is a vast storm with tropical storm force winds extending 500 miles across.

View the latest advisory, aircraft reconnaissance, and discussion on Erin in the Atlantic including the graphical forecast track courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.

Erin – Five-Day Forecast Cone

Erin – Wind Speed Probabilities

Latest Advisory

  • Hurricane Erin
  • Advisory Number 41
  • Date and Time: 2025-08-18 11:00 AM EDT
  • Location: 35.4 N 70.9 W, or 260 miles East of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, or 410 miles West-Northwest of Bermuda.
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb or 28.11 inches
  • Present Movement: NNE at 18 mph
Erin's Track and Forecast Guidance
Figure 1: Erin’s track including NHC’s forecast cone courtesy of Tropycal and NOAA

Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

  • Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Bermuda

In addition, there will be a risk of heavy surf and rip currents along the East Coast of the United States this week…

Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information.

Latest Aircraft Reconnaissance Vortex Data Message

  • Time: 2025-08-21 14:26:50
  • Latitude: 35.07
  • Longitude: -71.33
  • Standard Level Pressure: 700.0
  • Minimum Height: 2695.0
  • Minimum Sea Level Pressure (hPa): 952.0
  • Location of Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 290 deg 3 kt
  • Eye character: nan
  • Eye shape: nan
  • Eye Diameter: nan
  • Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (kt): 65.0
  • Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 092 deg 47 nm 14:40:00z
  • Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound (kt): 193 deg 84 kt
  • Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 092 deg 47 nm 14:40:00z
  • Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (kt): 63 kt
  • Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 270 deg 45 nm 14:37:30z
  • Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound (kt): 354 deg 80 kt
  • Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 270 deg 54 nm 14:39:30z
  • Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12 c / 3042 m
  • Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17 c / 304q m
  • Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15 c / na
  • Fix: 12345 / 07
  • Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
  • Aircraft: AF303
  • Remarks:  MAX FL WIND 92 KT 098 / 51 NM 13:57:30Z ;
  • Mission ID: AF303-2405A-ERIN

Forecast Discussion

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2025

Erin remains a sprawling hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force winds extending nearly 500 n mi across. In fact, comparing Erin with systems around the same intensity and in similar locations over the past couple of decades indicates that it is around the 90th percentile in size. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the peak winds have come down a bit, and based on their data, the initial intensity is set at 85 kt. Although the core of Erin is pulling away from the United States, coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds continue along portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. The center of Erin passed just east of NOAA buoy 41001 earlier this morning, and it reported a minimum pressure of 962 mb and a maximum significant wave height of 45 ft. The associated swells are covering nearly the entire western Atlantic from the Bahamas to Atlantic Canada.

Erin is moving north-northeastward at 16 kt. A turn to the northeast or east-northeast with a significant increase in forward speed within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected to begin tonight, taking Erin out to sea over the north Atlantic during the next several days. The models are in good agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast.

Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler SSTs should cause Erin to gradually lose strength over the next several days. Extratropical transition is now expected to be complete by early Saturday, when the system is forecast to develop fronts after it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The NHC intensity forecast follows HCCA and IVCN in the short term, but leans toward the global model guidance during the predicted extratropical phase.

Model Forecast Tracks for Erin
Figure 2: Model Forecasts for Hurricane Erin courtesy of Tropycal and NOAA.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions will continue on the North Carolina Outer Banks today. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.

GEFS Model Ensemble Forecast Tracks for Erin
Figure 3: GEFS Ensemble Forecasts for Hurricane Erin courtesy of Tropycal and NOAA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 35.4N 70.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

12H 22/0000Z 37.0N 68.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 22/1200Z 39.1N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

36H 23/0000Z 41.0N 59.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 23/1200Z 43.2N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

60H 24/0000Z 46.2N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 24/1200Z 49.4N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 25/1200Z 54.5N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 26/1200Z 56.9N 21.1W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

Intensity Model Forecasts for Erin
Figure 4: Model Intensity Forecasts for Hurricane Erin courtesy of Tropycal and NOAA.