Storm Could Become Hurricane Later Today

While Invest 99L is becoming more of a threat, and getting more focus from forecasters, Tropical Storm Gaston continues to churn along in the Atlantic. After becoming a tropical storm on Tuesday, Gaston continued to strengthen, and now is on the cusp of becoming the third hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As of 11:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Gaston was located in the Central Atlantic about 1020 miles to the West of the Cabo Verde Islands. Looking at the system on a map, you can see that Gaston lies almost exactly midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. Gaston is moving to the Northwest at 16 miles per hour.

Mentioned earlier, Gaston continues to ramp up with maximum sustained winds now estimated to be 70 miles per hour with gusts up to 85 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure in the center of the circulation is estimated to be at 999 millibars or 29.50 inches of Hg. Estimates in wind speeds and pressure are based upon satellite imagery collected on the storm.

Currently, Gaston is no threat to land, and it appears to be a storm for the fish. There are no warnings out presently. Tropical storm force winds extend some 90 miles from the center of circulation so the storm is growing. Although Gaston is expected to become a hurricane later today, it will begin to fall under the influence of wind shear from a strong mid to upper level trough.

Yesterday, the intensity forecast for Gaston was much more optimistic with hurricane force winds growing to 90 mile per hour winds within 48 hours. Today, the NHC’s forecast discussion is calling for Gaston to become a minimal hurricane within the next 12 hours, and then regress to a strong tropical storm through 48 hours. Gaston is then expected to regenerate into a minimal hurricane by 72 hours, and reached 90 mile per hour winds within 96 hours.

Taking a look at the forecast track for Gaston courtesy of the National Hurricane Center, the storm is going to ride the northwesterly flow between a subtropical ridge and the potent trough shearing it over the next three days. Afterwards, Gaston is anticipated to turn more to the north and stay well to the east of Bermuda. The storm is expected to remain a hurricane by the end of five days.