Disturbance in Northern Leeward Has 80 Percent Chance of Forming in 5 Days

While Fiona dissipated and Gaston grew into a Tropical Storm on Tuesday, concern grew on the disturbance nearing the Lesser Antilles. Invest 99L is beginning to look more and more like a threat, and models are indicating that the storm could affect Florida and then the Gulf Coast over the next week or so.

As of a few hours ago when the National Hurricane Center in Miami, gave its latest Tropical Weather Outlook, the disturbance had a 60 percent or medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours, and an 80 percent or high chance of development over the next five days. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are now in route to the area where the disturbance is currently located.

According to the NHC, satellite imagery, surface weather observations, and radar data are indicating that an area of low pressure has formed with Invest 99L. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more organization. The one key ingredient that is missing at this time is a closed circulation. Atmospheric conditions are also just marginally favorable for development at the moment.

Despite no closed circulation yet and optimum environmental conditions, Invest 99L is still likely to become a depression at any time over the next several days. Residents in the Caribbean including Puerto Rico, Northern Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas should closely monitor the situation with this developing threat. People in Florida and along the Gulf Coast also need to pay attention and get ready in case this disturbance does become a storm or hurricane and heads toward those areas.

Looking at the latest model guidance from Tropical Tidbits, there is a growing consensus that this disturbance will track to the West-Northwest towards South Florida, across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Gulf. The track then ends up with a second landfall anywhere between New Orleans and Pensacola, Florida. Future intensity of this developing disturbance is anywhere from a weak low to a major hurricane in the Gulf according to Mike’s Weather Page.

Again these model forecasts of intensity and track are projecting very far out. Like Bryan Norcross said last night, “the forecast graphic for a week from now is almost certainly wrong.” The moral of the story here, especially if you are living in South Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf Coast is to continue to monitor developments with this disturbance, and get ready. Preparing now will go a long way if indeed the disturbance develops and does track up in the direction of the Southeastern United States.