Storm Expected to Regain Strength and Actually Be A Strong Category Two System in Five Days

It wasn’t a good day if you were a tropical feature in the Atlantic on Thursday. First, Invest 99L took a hit as thunderstorm activity around it fell apart. Then, Gaston, as expected, weakened thanks to the effects of upper level wind shear in the Central Atlantic. Gaston is now a strong tropical storm with 65 mile per hour winds

As of the 5:00 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located some 1,030 miles to the East-Northeast of the Leeward Islands, or about 1,195 miles to the East-Southeast of Bermuda. Winds again are at 65 miles per hour with gusts in upwards of minimal hurricane force at 75 miles per hour.

Gaston has increased in size with its tropical storm force winds extending some 125 miles from the center of circulation. Minimum central pressure is presently at 997 millibars, or 29.44 inches of Hg. The storm is moving to the Northwest at 17 miles per hour. This motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next couple days.

Despite the bump in the road experienced by Gaston on Thursday, the storm is expected to regain strength, and become a hurricane again by either Friday night or Saturday. In addition, the intensity forecast in the latest forecast discussion from the NHC indicates that Gaston will become a Category Two Hurricane in 48 hours, and be close to major hurricane strength within 72 hours.

Gaston has been entangled with a potent mid-to-upper level low over the past day or two, and that has caused it to experience hostile upper level winds. Now, the storm is getting around the low, and should see more favorable atmospheric conditions, which is why the NHC is indicating that the storm should not only regain hurricane strength, but could significantly strengthen to nearly a Category Three Hurricane by the beginning of next week.

The good news in all of this is that Gaston appears to be no threat for land. The current forecast track has the storm on a northwesterly course over the next several days, which should put it nearly directly east of Bermuda by Monday morning. However, the storm will then fall under the influence of the westerlies, and dramatically turn to the east and away from the resort island. So, as we discussed earlier in the blog this week, Gaston appears to be a storm for the fish and shipping interests.