Gordon Weakens Slightly Overnight; Remnants Of TD #7 Getting Better Organized In Gulf

The tropics continue to heat up on this Friday morning. Gordon is still churning in the Central Atlantic although it weakened a bit overnight. The remnants of what was Tropical Depression Seven continue to get better organized in the extreme Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and a new tropical wave just came off the coast of Africa. First, we are going to take a look at the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven since that is becoming the more immediate threat.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has been on the increase in the area of TD #7’s remnants this morning. Still looking for a defined circulation, but sea surface temperatures and upper level winds are favorable for these remnants to regenerate. It has been almost a week since Tropical Depression Seven faded from view in the Eastern Caribbean. These remnants continued to travel westward across the Caribbean and into Central America before re-emerging in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf.

The GFS model did a great job of projecting this earlier in the week. A number of its model runs pointed to these remnants regenerating into something more significant around the time of August 20th. So, these remnants may be a bit ahead of schedule. Looking at the GFS now, the 0Z run showed something spinning up in the Western Gulf, and hugging the Gulf coast of Mexico for several days before moving inland on August 23rd. Meanwhile, the 06z run showed the remnants spinning around the Western Gulf until finally moving into Northern Mexico on August 22nd.

The latest GFS model run, the 12z is still indicating a lot of moisture in the Western Gulf through August 24th, but again the remnants move into Northern Mexico. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the disturbed area this afternoon. The National Hurricane Center has given the remnants a 70 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Returning to Gordon, the storm slackened a bit last night with its maximum sustained winds decreasing to 65 miles per hour while wind gusts dropped to 75 miles per hour, and the minimum central pressure increased several millibars to 998, or 29.47 inches of Hg.

However, the storm is still a threat to the Azores. On its current track, Gordon should reach the Azores by Sunday night, and it still could strengthen into the season’s third hurricane before beginning to encounter cooler waters. Finally, we have a tropical wave that just departed the West Coast of Africa within the past 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms in the area of the wave are still disorganized, and environmental conditions are still not really favorable for development. So, tropical formation with this wave will be slow to occur. The NHC gives this wave a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

Taking a look at a bit of tropical climatology, we are now in the middle of August, and sea surface temperatures usually begin to pick up around the basin. Looking at the latest sea surface temperature map, the Gulf of Mexico has the warmest in the basin right now at around 30 degrees centigrade or about 86 degrees, which is well over the threshold of 80 degrees for tropical development. Moving out along the East Coast, temperatures are hovering right around the 80 degree mark from the Outer Banks on down to the East Coast of Florida. There is a plume of cooler water off the Northeast Florida coast while warmer water lurks to the east along the Gulf Stream. Heading out into the Atlantic, sea surface temperatures drop significantly when you get a few hundred miles east of the islands. So, we are still not there yet for the classic Cape Verde storms.