Over the past 25 days, we’ve gone from a season that had been very quiet, to one that has been very busy. We have seen eight named storms and four hurricanes, and all of the hurricanes have been major storms of Category Three strength or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This year was projected to be an above average season, and despite some tempering of that enthusiasm in the past couple months, it has begun to live up to its potential.

Could more be on the way? Is the Cape Verde pipeline beginning to dry out? Well, looking at the latest satellite imagery out of Africa doesn’t show that things are winding down. Actually, they appear to be ramping up. Another wave just moved into the Atlantic off the West Coast of Africa near Guinea, Guinea-Bisseau, Gambia, and Sierra Leone. Behind that, there is plenty more disturbed weather across Sub-Sahara Africa. There is another large area of shower and thunderstorm activity covering Southern Mali, Eastern Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Benin, and Togo. An even bigger area of storminess covers Eastern Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Finally, there are scattered showers and storms in the Horn of Africa region.

The Cape Verde season continues through September, and into the first week of October. Sea surface temperatures have been above normal, but will they continue that way in the Eastern Atlantic deeper into October? Also, upper level atmospheric conditions in the Eastern Atlantic also begin to change as we transition toward winter. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 30th, and as the 2005 season demonstrated, we can have storms in December. However, classic hurricanes, which come off Africa, usually don’t occur after October 15th.