It has been a busy Wednesday in the Tropical Atlantic. For the first time in 74 years, we had two Category Four systems simultaneously in the Atlantic Basin with Igor and Julia. However, the more immediate concern was in the Western Caribbean as Tropical Storm Karl closed in on landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Karl was also getting stronger as it moved onshore this morning. Winds had increased to 65 miles per hour, and pressure had dropped to 991 millibars.

According to the reports out of Belize, Tropical Storm Karl made landfall some 30 miles to the East-Northeast of Chetumal in the Yucatan at 9:10 AM EDT this morning. Since making landfall, Karl has gradually weakened to a mild tropical storm with winds of only 45 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars. The 4:00 AM CDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center has Karl located 80 miles to the West-Northwest of Chetumal, or about 90 miles to the East-Southeast of Campeche, Mexico. The storm is moving to the West-Northwest at 15 miles per hour. So, it has roughly another six hours to go before moving out into the Gulf of Mexico.

The topography of the land across the Yucatan Peninsula is basically flat, but it is an elevated plateau that has roughed up many a storm including a couple of the most powerful in Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and Hurricane Wilma (2005). Tropical storm force winds extend out some 40 miles from the center of circulation. Rain is expected to be the key threat with Karl right now as amounts could range between 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches in spots. The eleventh named storm of the season is expected to re-intensify when it moves back out over water on Thursday, and could strengthen to a hurricane by Friday.

The latest forecast discussion from the NHC indicates that Karl will intensify to have 70 knot, or 80 mile per hour winds by the time it makes landfall on Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if it strengthens to even more than that. Recent storms in the Western Gulf including Hurricane Alex this year have intensified significantly before landfall. The warm waters of the Gulf along with light winds should provide a perfect breeding ground for strengthening. Looking at the latest forecast models, the storm appears to be on a trajectory to make a second landfall in Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz.