Hurricane Jimena Near Category Five Strength

Throughout the day, Hurricaneville has been keeping tabs on what has been happening in the Eastern Pacific. Earlier this morning, the site posted on article in the blog on Hurricane Jimena, which rapidly deepened into a major hurricane over the weekend just miles off the West Mexican Coastline.

During the day on Monday though, Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the system, and found it was even stronger. Late Monday morning (Pacific Daylight Time), reconnaissance had discovered that the hurricane now had winds of 150 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of only 936 millibars, or 27.63 inches of Hg. Three hours later, the storm continued to intensify as it was now on the cusp of being a Category Five Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with sustained winds reaching 155 miles per hour while minimum central pressure dipped some more to 931 millibars, or 27.49 inches of Hg.

The latest advisory (5 PM PDT) has Jimena staying status quo strengthwise. However, the storm is getting closer to the Southern tip of Baja California. In addition, the system has grown in size with hurricane force winds extending some 45 miles from the center of circulation while tropical storm force winds reach some 140 miles from the eye. Right now, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the coast of Baja California from Bahia Magdalena in the West around Cabo San Lucas in the South to San Evaristo in the East. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Bahia Magdalena to Punta Abreojos on the West Coast of Baja California, and north of San Evaristo to Mulege.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery out of Mexico, you can see a well defined eye with Jimena as well as a strong solid core. There is also good outflow, and very deep convection, particularly near the center. The last NHC discussion from this afternoon indicated that there was a 149 knot wind at 700 millibar/flight level. In addition, there was a 132 knot wind at the surface in the Northeast Quadrant, 128 knot wind in the Northwest Quadrant, and a 125 knot wind in the Southwest Quadrant. So, there is pretty good symmetry with this system, especially at the core. Expect fluctuations in intensity as now the system will probably go through some eyewall replacement cycles. After that, the SHIPS intensity model indicates cooler water and an increase in southwesterly shear over the next 36 hours. However, the forecast still calls for Jimena to be a major hurricane at landfall.

Over the past few hours, Jimena has wobbled a bit to the right, but that is not uncommon for storms of this strength to do as long as it does not stay a trend. We will have to continue keeping an eye on that. Right now, the official track by the NHC has the storm heading in a North-Northwest to North direction that would take it over the western coast of Baja California between Bahia Magdalena and Punta Abreojos by mid to late morning on Wednesday. However, that means that the stronger Northeastern Quadrant will be affecting Cabo San Lucas northward to Mulege. Another fear with this system is that it is going to slow down, and produce torrential rains over inland portions of Western Mexico.

All interests in Western Mexico and Baja California should closely monitor the progress of this storm, and those in the watch and warning areas should be taking the necessary precautions and preparations for this dangerous storm. Hurricaneville will continue to track the storm, and post updates as they warrant.