Good evening everyone. Sorry that I didn’t get a chance to update the home page today, but I was in a hurry to get to work. Hurricaneville continues to follow the progress of the broad area of low pressure now approaching the Western Atlantic. As of the 8:00 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook by the National Hurricane Center, the low was located some 450 miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles, and it continues to show signs of better organization.

Looking at the latest enhanced color satellite imagery from around the Atlantic Basin, there is a lot of activity, but the most important feature is the broad low, which is now an 1008 millibar low. The area of convection associated with the low has continued to get better organized this evening. The showers and thunderstorms have intensified as shown by the deeper reds were seeing. The darker the color, the higher the cloud tops, and the stronger the storms are. Upper level winds are very light and favorable for development at the moment as the low is on the periphery of a strong upper level high in the North Central Atlantic, and another upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.

The low continues to move to the West-Northwest at about 15 miles per hour, and there is still a high probability (greater than 50 percent) that it will become either a tropical depression, or tropical storm over the next 48 hours. Earlier today, there was no low level circulation detected with the system. If and when it does, it will become a tropical cyclone. Checking out the latest models, most of them have a forecast track, which takes the low north of the islands. Nevertheless, all interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this developing low.