Tropical Disturbance Near Lesser Antilles Bears Watching

Upper Level Conditions Will Make Things Difficult For Now

On this early Sunday morning, our primary focus is on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine, which is expected to meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast through Labor Day, and perhaps into the middle of next week. However, we do have another tropical entity, Invest 92L, that may be a threat in the coming days.

Presently, the disturbance is located about 250 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles, and it has a good deal of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it along with winds up to tropical storm force. However, upper level atmospheric conditions are going to make things difficult for the disturbance to develop any further for at least the next five days.

The disturbance is also moving at a pretty fast pace between 15 and 20 miles per hour. Currently, the forecast track models have Invest 92L going through the Windward islands into the Central Caribbean, but the actual forecast track is a bit to the north of that and curving more northward with time toward Puerto RIco, Florida, and the East Coast of the United States.

Chances for development with this disturbance within the next 48 hours are currently low at 20 percent, and only at 30 percent over the next five days. There is plenty of time to worry about this feature. However, we need to keep in mind that we are in the heart of hurricane season with the statistical peak taking place on September 10th. So, we will need to eventually keep an eye on this.