Storm Finally Giving Way to Hostile Environmental Conditions

Although its demise has been delayed, Fiona has been downgraded to a depression. The small storm, which has shown a great deal of resiliency during its lifetime, finally gave way to the persistent westerly shear. Fiona was downgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday, and as of early this morning, has been hanging on to depression status.

Presently, Tropical Depression Fiona is located some 525 miles to the Northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, or approximately 670 miles to the Southeast of the resort island of Bermuda. The depression is moving to the West-Northwest at 18 miles per hour, and has maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is up to 1008 millibars or 29.77 inches of Hg.

Fiona’s circulation has been moving at a brisk pace, which has to be hindering development somewhat. The depression is expected to continue a West-Northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed starting later today. The wind shear is expected to continue for the next 12 to 18 hours according to the 5:00 AM discussion from the National Hurricane Center.

However, the latest discussion from the NHC, as of 11:00 AM this morning indicates that between 48 and 72 hours, Fiona will encounter somewhat favorable conditions as it moves underneath an upper level trough into an area with easterly winds. However, beyond 72 hours, models indicate that the depression will encounter a second trough, and another round of strong southwesterly shear.

As a result, the latest intensity forecast from the NHC is calling for Fiona to gradually weaken into a remnant low within 36 hours, and weakening further to a trough within four days. Meanwhile, the forecast track is calling for Fiona’s eventual remnants to recurve to the west of Bermuda by the end of five days.