Nice Weather Thursday Followed by Increase in Heat and Humidity During the Weekend

Earlier this week, temperatures reached their highest levels of the year to date at GWC in South Plainfield.   On Monday, the mercury climbed to within a few tenths of a degree of 85 degrees.  On Tuesday, temperatures managed to get up to just under 83 degrees before clouds moved in with some sprinkles on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The clouds and sprinkles were part of a frontal boundary that ushered in high pressure, and great weather for Thursday.   Driving around to several locations around Middlesex County, I didn’t detect a cloud in the sky until about sunset when some high cirrus clouds developed near South Amboy.  High temperature at GWC on Thursday was just under 80 degrees (79.6) with the heat index topping out at 80.5 degrees.

Winds were somewhat light at about 5 miles per hour with gusts up to 15 mph.  The dry air and slight breeze did enhance the fire risk today, and while I was at Waterfront Park in South Amboy, fire trucks came in to investigate a small fire that developed in the brush along the beachfront.  The nice weather is expected to last for about another day with pleasant conditions and about the same temperature forecast for Friday by the NWS office in Mount Holly.

However, as we move into the weekend, there are a couple things that will begin to come into play.  First, we have a disturbance off the Southeast coast. Located a few hundred miles to the east of the North Carolina-South Carolina border, this disturbance already has winds of 40 to 45 mph in some parts, and is in an area currently favorable for development.  Conditions will continue to be favorable, and there is an 80 percent chance of tropical formation within the next 48 to 120 hours.

With this disturbance to our south, a more southerly flow will develop thanks to the counterclockwise flow around the low.  This will usher in warmer temperatures and high humidity as we move into Saturday and Sunday.  There will also be a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm, particularly in the morning and early afternoon of each day.  In addition to our low off the Southeast coast, there is another low pressure system currently creating havoc in the nation’s midsection.

On Wednesday, the storm system pushed into the Great Plains and spawned some 46 tornadoes across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.  One tornado in particular came very close to Oklahoma City.  The storm also caused the first ever Flash Flood Emergency to be issued in Oklahoma.   This storm system will continue to push eastward into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys this weekend, and perhaps join forces with our currently non-tropical entity off the Southeast coast.

As a result, we will have more and more in the way of increased instability through the weekend, and Monday and perhaps Tuesday look to be a bit on the stormy side here in the Garden State with temperatures again rising into the upper 70s to low 80s, or perhaps a bit warmer.