Storms Expected to Move in during Late Afternoon to Early Evening around NJ

Good morning. Just came in from outside, and it’s already ugly out there. As of 10:30 AM, the temperature was already at 80 degrees with the dew point at 74 for a heat index of 85. In the last hour or so (as of 11:30 AM), the temperature has only risen a couple of degrees to 82, but the humidity is at 80 percent for a dew point of 75 and a heat index of 88. So, the warm and humid air mass is still in place over the region. There is a change in the making though.

This morning, there were already some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across Western New Jersey and North Central Pennsylvania. The National Weather Service had issued a flood warning around 8:00 AM for portions of Hunterdon County. Last night, there were a total of 7 severe thunderstorm warnings and 4 flash flood warnings across portions of Pennsylvania and upstate New York as the front began to push through that area. Expect our area to be under the gun today.

The National Weather Service just issued a Special Weather Statement at 11:10 AM for Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, and Somerset counties for a broken line of thunderstorms moving through that area at 20 miles per hour. Wind gusts up to 40 miles per hour and frequent cloud to ground lightning have been reported in these cells ranging from Washington in Warren County to Clinton in Hunterdon County and Byram in Morris County. No general severe thunderstorm watch or warning has been issued for any portion of the Garden State just yet, but we are still just getting started.

Currently, outside at GWC in South Plainfield, the skies are hazy with some cirrus and cirrocumulus clouds overhead. Very humid. There was a bit of a breeze when I began my walk this morning, but that has even subsided. Barometric pressure at GWC is on the decline at 29.84 inches of Hg. Winds are calm. This continue to change as I am writing this report. The National Weather Service in Mount Holly just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Northeastern Hunterdon County, Southern Morris County, and Northern Somerset County.

This specific NWS warning indicated that doppler radar detected a severe thunderstorm near Whitehouse Station in Hunterdon County capable of producing one inch diameter hail, and 60 mile per hour winds. The storm is expected to be in Somerville by 11:45 AM, Far Hills and Martinsville by 11:50 AM, Mendham by 11:55 AM, Millington and Basking Ridge around noon, Morristown by 12:10 PM, and Madison by 12:15 PM. The storm cell is moving to the east at 25 miles per hour. The warning is in effect until 12:30 PM.

Expect more of this as we go through the day today and as the cold front gets closer. Again, right now, we have scattered activity with most of it concentrated across Hunterdon, Morris, and Somerset counties right now. However, according to the most recent surface map by the NWS, the front was still in the Eastern Great Lakes as of 7:18 AM EDT. So, the frontal line is still pretty much to the west of the region. Looking at the latest info from the Storm Prediction Center in there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic including New Jersey northward into New England.

A more closer look at the map by the SPC indicates a line of thunderstorms beginning to push through Western Pennsylvania around Pittsburgh. This means that the heaviest weather is about 6 hours away from our area. So, we should expect the line of storms to move through Central Jersey and the rest of the metro area by around dinner time (between 5:30 and 6:30 PM). This line looks pretty impressive now, but could the isolated storms occurring across Hunterdon, Morris, and Somerset right now county take out some of the energy boiling up in the atmosphere right now? It is possible.

Stay tuned to your local weather on TV, web, and mobile for further updates. The high school football season is kicking off this afternoon with some games starting at 4:00 PM. If your game is starting around that time, you may want to pay close attention to the weather, and get in touch with school officials such as a coach or AD about the status of the game before heading out.