Hurricane Hunters Find Storm Strong Enough To Become Season’s 2nd Hurricane

For much of the last 24 hours, Ernesto had not done much.  After dropping 15 millibars of pressure over a little more than a day, the fifth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season had leveled off.  As of this morning, pressure had dropped a few millibars more to 989 millibars, but the storm still had 65 mile per hour winds.

Since that time, Hurricane Hunter reconaissance aircraft have flown into the system, and found it to be much stronger.  Researchers in the storm found that the pressure had dropped to 983 millibars or 29.03 inches of Hg and winds had increased to 80 miles per hour with gusts in upwards of 100 miles per hour.  As a result, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Ernesto to the season’s second hurricane of the season.

With the warm waters of the Western Caribbean and not much shear, the storm was able to resume deepening, and cross the hurricane threshold this afternoon.  According to the Special Discussion issued about an hour ago, Hurricane Hunters found an extrapolated flight level wind of 66 knots, and a SFMR peak surface wind of 75 knots.  The storm is forecast to make landfall over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery from the area being affected by Ernesto, the hurricane is showing a good deal of banding around the center and a healthy outflow.  The visible and infrared satellites didn’t indicate much of an eye feature, but the amount of deeper convection reflected by the colors of the cloud tops (red and yellow) in the infrared is increasing.  So more strengthening appears to be taking place.

With still at least another half day or so before landfall, there is still more room for strengthening.  The NHC indicates that the storm could have winds in excess of 90 miles per hour prior to coming ashore.  Knowing the sea surface temperatures in that part of the world, and the current state of the hurricane, it could strengthen to a Category Two storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Ernesto has also been pinpointed a bit further north than the previous track.  As a result, the forecast track has been shifted northward.

As of the 2:00 PM EDT Public Advisory from the NHC, Hurricane Ernesto was located some 185 miles East of Chetumal, Mexico in the Southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.  The hurricane is moving to the West-Northwest at 14 miles per hour.  So, landfall is at least 13 hours away.  A Hurricane Warning is currently in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Tulum including the resort island of Cozumel, and the entire length of the coast of Belize. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Honduras from west of the Nicaraguan border to Punta Sal including the Bay Islands, along the Yucatan Peninsula north of Tulum to Cabo Catoche, and along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Celestun to Chilitepec.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Honduras coast from Punta Sal westward to the Guatemala border.