Ninth Storm Of The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forms; Could Threaten Florida

With Harvey coming ashore in Central America, and now spinning down in Mexico, focus has shifted eastward into the Lesser Antilles and Eastern Caribbean, where the ninth storm of the season, Tropical Storm Irene is currently moving through.

Skipping past the tropical depression phase, Irene became a tropical storm on Saturday night east of the Leeward Islands. At the time, maximum sustained winds were at 50 miles per hour with a minimum central pressure of 1006 millibars, or 29.71 inches of Hg. Peak wind gusts were reaching 65 miles per hour.

Since that time, the pressure and winds have remained constant while the center of the storm has redeveloped to the north. Located now 10 miles to the Northeast of Guadeloupe and 60 miles Southeast of Antigua, Irene is moving rapidly to the West at 21 miles per hour. The storm is much bigger than Harvey was at peak intensity with tropical storm force winds already extending some 150 miles from the center.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery of the storm, Irene has a nice distinct swirl to it. However, its western flank is still not as well formed as the eastern side. This is due to some dry air slipping into the circulation. It does appear to have nice outflow to it though. The latest discussion on Irene indicates that environmental conditions at the moment appear favorable for further strengthening, and have the storm becoming a strong Category One Hurricane within 36 hours.

However, the forecast track of Irene has it following a similar path that Emily did a few weeks ago, which means it will be moving across the rugged terrain of Cuba and Hispaniola over the next several days. Being that it is expected to be stronger than Emily was, Irene is forecast to remain at least a tropical storm by the time it moves back out over the water north of Cuba by midweek.

Currently, there are Hurricane Warnings in effect for the Southern Coast of Hispaniola from Cabo Engano in the Dominican Republic to the Haiti border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, Montserrat, British Virgin Islands, and the Northern Coast of Hispaniola from the Haiti Border to Cabo Engano in the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Haiti.

All interests in the United States, especially Florida and the Southeast coast should closely monitor the progress of this system, and begin making preparations in case the storm does head into the region.