Storm On Verge To Becoming First Atlantic Hurricane Of 2011; Forecast Track Shifts

Could the ninth storm be the charm? So far in 2011, the Atlantic Basin has seen nine named storms, but is yet to see its first hurricane. However, as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Irene appears to be ready to buck the early trend. At 11:00 PM EDT, the maximum sustained winds in Irene had increased to 70 miles per hour while the pressure dropped to 993 millibars or 29.32 inches.

Centered some 50 miles to the West-Northwest of the island of St. Croix, or 50 miles Southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Irene is approaching Puerto Rico as it moves to the West-Northwest at 15 miles per hour. With the storm nearing hurricane strength, and expected to be a stronger storm with time, the forecast track of the system has shifted a bit more to the right. Now, Tropical Storm Irene is expected to be over water more, and not interacting as much with the rugged terrain of Cuba and Hispaniola.

The shift in track now puts a more formidable storm or hurricane at the doorstep of Florida, the Southeastern United States, and the Carolinas later in the week. It all depends on two other players in the environment. One is the subtropical ridge, which is expected to weaken and retreat eastward as the week progresses, and the other is a trough of low pressure in the Great Lakes. Will the ridge keep Irene heading west long enough where it heads into the Gulf of Mexico, or will the storm turn northward around the weakness in the periphery of the ridge.

The majority of the forecast models are all indicating a curve northward in the general vicinity of the Southeastern Coast later this week. The area of highest probability looks to be Georgia and South Carolina, but there is still time for it to either head more westward, or head further to the north and east over the Outer Banks. All residents from Miami to Cape Hatteras should be paying close attention to the progress of this storm. Gulf residents should check weather reports periodically to see if the forecast track begins to show a trend to the west.