Unseasonably Warm Weather To Start The Week Will Trigger Thunderstorms
Get ready for a repeat of last Tuesday’s weather on Monday across Central Jersey. As a matter of fact, it may be worse this time. The battle lines between significantly warmer air, and more seasonable temperatures have been drawn. While the mercury is only expected to climb into the upper 50s to low 60s on both Saturday and Sunday, it is forecast to be much higher on Monday.
As a result, conditions will be ripe for severe weather not only across the Garden State, but also much of the eastern half of the country. Another significant severe weather outbreak is anticipated to begin on Sunday, and carry over into Sunday with a significant surge of warm, moist air ahead of a strong cold front to be a key ingredient. We may have our warmest day of the year yet in Middlesex County as the mercury is expected to climb at or near 80 degrees.
Last Monday, the mercury climbed to the upper 70s to low 80s across much of the Mid-Atlantic including Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C.. Conditions are forecast to be similar this Monday, and actually stretch further north. Right now, the highest probability of precipitation is actually on Sunday night at 50 percent, but Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday is currently indicating a 20 percent chance of Thunderstorms.
As of 4:00 PM EDT on Saturday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma indicated that there was a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms over the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest including: Far Southeast South Dakota, Far Northeast Nebraska, the Northwestern half of Iowa, Southern Minnesota, and Far Western Wisconsin. Forecasters also indicate a slight risk from the Northeastern Plains to the Western Upper Great Lakes.
Forecasters add that as the storm system moves eastward, the threat will increase across the Mid Missouri Valley. These storms will be accompanied by the folowing: Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and isolated Tornadoes. This area will also expand as the storm system taps into the low level jet that is also helping to fuel this latest severe weather outbreak. On Sunday, the moderate risk for severe thunderstorms will be smaller, but the area for slight risk of severe weather will expand.
The lower Great Lakes region including Western New York and Pennsylvania may have a chance of damaging winds and small hail late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, but it should dissipate with the decreasing sunlight. An extensive line of thunderstorms will move across the Ohio Valley on Monday, and with temperatures ahead of this line expected to be warm at the surface, conditions will become more conducive for the development of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms as the storm system moves into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast later in the day.