As expected, Hurricane Fred has lost some of its punch after rapidly intensifying to a major hurricane on Wednesday. Once a Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with winds of 120 miles per hour, Fred has slipped a bit to a Category Two storm with winds sustained at 100 miles per hour. Positioned well out at sea, the sixth named storm of the Atlantic Season, and the second major hurricane is forecast to be a storm for the fish and shipping interests.
As of the 11 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Fred was located some 740 miles to the West of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic. The system has continued to slow down, and turn more northward (moving Northwest at 7 miles per hour) as an upper level trough in the Central Atlantic begins to take hold over it. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 100 miles per hour with gusts down to 120 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure in the eye of Fred has risen to 974 millibars, or 28.76 inches of Hg.
Hurricane Fred remains a fairly compact storm with hurricane force winds extending out only 30 miles from the eye while tropical storm force winds reach out 115 miles. Looking at the latest forecast discussion from the NHC, Fred is already feeling the effects of wind shear as its eye is not a visible, and the overall structure of the storm is more elongated. This is only the beginning as Fred continues to proceed into hostile environmental conditions consisting of stronger shear, and cooler waters.
Viewing both the intensity and track models, the UKMET still has Fred as a Category Two Hurricane by the end of the five day forecast period. Other models such as the GFDL and HWRF still have Fred as a tropical storm by that time. Nevertheless, the official forecast calls for Fred to be a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC guidance takes into account the strong shear and cooler sea surface temperatures that Fred will be encountering over the next few days while models such as the GFDL and HWRF don’t really take that into account as much. The SHIPS models is in agreement with the NHC assessment.
Moving on to the track, the NHC is still calling for Fred to head northward with time. By Tuesday though, the forecast does have Fred going back to the left again, but by that time, the storm will be a shell of its former self. Both the HWRF and the GFDL continue to have the storm heading more northward in 120 hours while the UKMET still has Fred heading more westward. The CLIPER model has more of a Northwest track throughout the period while the BAMS and the AEMN have the storm actually turning southward.
Hurricaneville will continue to track the progress of this storm, and post updates when warranted.