Good evening. Sorry that I took so long to post something to the web site, and the blog, but I was at the Rutgers Football season opener against Cincinnati, and just got home a little while ago. Anyway, a lot has transpired throughout the tropics since I last posted this afternoon. First, let’s talk about the goings on in the Eastern Atlantic. Our vigorous tropical wave associated with an 1007 millibar low near the Cape Verde Islands has done what it was forecast to do, and that was to become a tropical depression.

As of the 5:00 PM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, the seventh tropical depression of the 2009 Atlantic Season emerged some 160 miles to the South of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds were up to 35 miles per hour with gusts up to 45 miles per hour (40 knots). Minimum central pressure with the depression has fallen slightly to 1005 millibars, or 29.68 inches of Hg. The system is moving to the West at 16 miles per hour, and a turn to the West-Northwest is expected along with a slow down in forward momentum.

Looking at the latest satellite imagery from the Eastern Atlantic, you can see a good ball of convection. There is a circulation developing in all four quadrants with a little bit of outflow coming from each. Upper level wind conditions are favorable for continued development, and TD #7 could become a tropical storm in the next advisory. The question is where will the storm head next. Moving on to the forecast track, the depression is expected to be well west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday afternoon. Then, by Thursday, it will be around the same latitude as the Northern Leeward Islands.

The forecast discussion by the NHC indicates that a narrow ridge is in place over the depression, but will weaken, and give way to an upper level low that will force TD #7 to turn to the Northwest, and then North over the next 2 to 3 days. The intensity forecast indicates that the depression should become a strong tropical storm with sustained winds of 55 knots, or 65 miles per hour within the next 72 hours. Sea surface temperatures are adequate for development in the short term while wind shear from the east will lessen, and provide an atmosphere conducive for development for the first 72 hours, but the shear will return after that preventing further strengthening.