Good afternoon everyone. I continue to get ready for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In the Downloads section of the Hurricaneville web site, I added a couple more downloads in the Storm Preparedness area including information on First Aid, and a Checklist of Emergency Supplies as well as some supplies that could be used for an emergency. Moreover, as those on my Mailing List will attest, I have been e-mailing news articles that I’ve been reading on the web on just about a daily basis.

However, what I wanted to speak with you about this afternoon was the fact that the Forecast team at Colorado State University led by Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach have issued an update to their seasonal forecast for the upcoming 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Now for those, who haven’t been aware, Dr. Gray and his staff issued an initial forecast for the season in December, and in that prognostication, there was a call for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category Three strength or better on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). In this latest forecast, Gray indicates that there is a potential of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Some TV outlets indicated that there will be 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, but that is not on the official forecast.

A lot has been made on forecasts over the past couple seasons after Gray’s forecast team as well as NOAA has projected above average numbers. Gray’s team in particular indicated prior to both of the last two seasons that there would be 17 named storms, and have fallen short although last season actual output was average to above average in terms of numbers: 15 named storms, 6 major hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Consequently, people have threatened to sue Gray for providing inaccurate forecasts that drove people away from vacation spots such as Florida. However, NHC director, Bill Read, who became the full time director after being an interim following the forced departure of Bill Proenza during the middle of the 2007 season, indicated that people shouldn’t create too much fuss over the seasonal forecasts, and should be ready regardless of how many storms could occur.

Perhaps the controversies are the reason for Gray’s team calling for an above average season with limited enthusiasm. Despite increasing the forecast numbers, they were only increased slightly, and are still a bit less than those projected in each of the last two seasons. Moving along with the forecast, another important tidbit of information in Dr. Gray’s updated projections for the upcoming season is that the probability for landfall anywhere along the coastline of the United States. Back in December, that probability was sitting at just 60 percent with a 37 percent probability along the East Coast of the United States including Florida and a 36 percent chance for the Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas. For April, those percentages all went up significantly (by nearly 10 percent). The chance of a major hurricane coming ashore anywhere from Maine to Texas increased to 69 percent while the percentages for the East Coast including Florida went up to 45 percent, and the Gulf Coast grew to 44 percent.

Many wonder how William Gray, Phil Klotzbach, and their team come up with this seasonal forecast. For the better part of three decades, this group has been making forecasts for upcoming seasons. The core ingredients in making these forecasts are the following: The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), Rainfall in the Sahel, and sea surface temperatures and pressure readings in the Atlantic. This years forecasts have been based more on the sea surface temperatures and pressure readings in the Atlantic as the team made adjustments to counter the issues with the past two season’s forecasts. Factors that contributed to the above average assessment for the 2008 seasonal forecasts are: The presence of La Nina conditions in the Eastern Pacific, and rising sea surface temperatures and falling pressures in the Atlantic. Although the La Nina has shown signs of eroding in recent months, the fertile conditions across the Atlantic have forced the updated forecast numbers to go up.

There will be continued updates to the forecast throughout the season with another forecast issued in June followed by one more in August. NOAA will be issuing their seasonal forecast during Hurricane Awareness Week, which usually is during the week prior to the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Keep in mind when you are looking at these forecasts, and evaluating them: It only takes one storm to make a devastating season. Hurricane Andrew proved that in 1992, which was a below average year with 7 named storms. The only thing that an above average seasonal forecast means is that the potential for that one big storm to come ashore has increased, and there is greater risk.