Thunderstorms Possible In Central Jersey On Tuesday

Good afternoon. The past several days have seen its share of changeable skies with clouds building in on Friday (March 28th), and then persisting into Saturday (March 29th). The sun returned on Sunday (March 30th) with a chilly early Spring day, but there was yet another change on the way. Looking at the various area forecasts given by several of the local media outlets, there was an indication that Tuesday was going to be significantly warmer. Temperatures are forecasted to be between 64 and 66 degrees with a possibility of the mercury scaling even higher toward 70 degrees.

It’s definitely March. A more autumnal or spring like pattern has been emerging. The flow has become more zonal with storms whisking their way rapidly across the United States mainland. That is the reason for the day to day changes that we’ve been seeing in the weather. Most of the time, these storms lack the energy to be really severe storms like their winter breathen, which are more powerful since they travel meridional, and tap into the energy that results from the cold air that dives in from Canada and the warm, moist air that flows in from the Gulf of Mexico. The winter storms also move much more slowly due to their north to south motion. However, the emergence of Spring also means the growing possibility of severe weather, especially as the days get longer, and the sun’s perpendicular ray gets closer to the Tropic of Cancer that signifies the start of Summer on, or about June 21st.

There will be a taste of things to come on Tuesday afternoon when the much warmer temperatures will do battle with a change from the Midwest. This turn in the weather was represented by a double-barrel low pressure system that is producing some severe weather in the Great Plains and the Missouri Valley. Looking at the Weather Channel’s webcast, showers and storms ranged from Oklahoma to Indiana and Ohio. The strongest and most turbulent thunderstorms were, at the moment, stretching Southwest to Northeast from Northeastern Oklahoma to Central Missouri. Now, there also some showers in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, but they aren’t as significant as those in the center of the United States.

The storms in the Midwest and Great Plains will consist of hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. Rainfall amounts will range between 2 to 4 inches. In addition, as the day progresses, these storms will also impact Eastern Texas, and parts of Arkansas. Behind the front, there will be snow in areas ranging from Eastern South Dakota and the UP of Michigan. There will also be windy conditions in these areas as well. The Midwestern and Great Plains storms on this Monday (March 31st) will be pushing eastward, and into a warm sector of air that will emerge during the day on Tuesday in the Northeast. One thing will be for sure, the Northeast and the Great Lakes, according to the TWC’s National Forecast, will have windy conditions.

As the storm in the Midwest winds into the Southeastern portion of Canada, it will spin off a cold front into the Northeastern portion of the United States including the Central Jersey area. There will be the showers, and the possibility for thunderstorms, especially the farther south you go. Some forecasts including the one I get from WeatherBug indicates that the possibility does exist here in Middlesex County for such storms. Winds are expected to range between 35 and 45 miles per hour with gusts approaching 55 miles per hour. Then on Wednesday, the second day of April, temperatures are predicted to be in the low 50s for highs and the low 30s for lows.