Hurricaneville continues to watch the progress of Hurricane Earl as it continues to trek West-Northwestward over the tropical waters of the Western Atlantic. Earl has gotten much stronger since our last blog post on Sunday night. As of the 3:00 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, Earl is located approximately 125 miles North of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and is moving to the West-Northwest at 13 miles per hour.

Maximum sustained winds have grown to 135 miles per hour making Earl a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This dangerous storm now is the strongest of the 2010 season with a minimum central pressure now down to 931 millibars, or 27.49 inches of Hg (Mercury). Danielle had been the strongest of the season with a minimum central pressure of 942 millibars, or 27.82 inches of Hg. Looking at the latest infared satellite imagery courtesy of the Weather Channel, you can see the storm has gotten deeper and stronger as indicated by the darker colors, which indicate colder cloud tops. Presently, there are watches and warnings issued for the following:

Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For:

• Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques.
• United States Virgin Islands
• British Virgin Islands
• Turks and Caicos Islands

Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For:

• Southeastern Bahamas

In addition to these watches and warnings, all interests along the East Coast of the United States from the Carolinas to New England should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Earl. The latest forecast track has Earl shifted more to the left with its closest approach to the U.S. East Coast on Thursday just off the Outer Banks of North Carolina near Cape Hatteras. The storm is then expected to head off to the Northeast, parallelling the Jersey Shore and points north through Friday before coming ashore in Nova Scotia on Saturday. It all depends on the timing of a strong trough over the Midwest. However, the five day forecast has an error of 200 to 300 nautical miles. So, it is very possible that the Mid-Atlantic and New England may not be spared.

As far as the intensity forecast goes, I don’t think that we’ve seen the latest of Earl’s strengthening. The deeper reds seen spread throughout the circulation in the latest satellite imagery coupled with a slight drop in pressure over just the past few hours indicates that the storm is still getting deeper. The latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Earl will intensify further into a storm with winds of 120 knots or 140 miles per hour over the next 48 hours. Even as it moves up the coast, it will only be entering waters that are slightly cooler relative to the waters it is presently in now. Also, keep in mind that intensity forecasts are more difficult to make than track forecasts.

Bottom line: It is going to be an interesting several days along the East Coast of the United States.