Earl Strengthens To Category Two Hurricane

As predicted earlier this weekend and late last week, Earl has not only become the Atlantic season’s third hurricane, but it has also strengthened to have winds of 100 miles per hour. The Category Two storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, has continued to strengthen over the Western Atlantic as it affects the Northern Leeward Islands.

Currently, as of the 11:00 PM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, the storm was located 50 miles East-Northeast of Barbuda in the Northernmost Leeward Islands. Earl is moving to the West-Northwest at 15 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds associated with the hurricane have increased to 100 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure has fallen to 971 millibars, or 28.67 inches of Hg (Mercury). There are a whole bunch of watches and warnings issued for the Northeastern Caribbean including the following:

Hurricane Warning In Effect For:

  • Antigua
  • Barbuda
  • Montserrat
  • St. Kitts
  • Nevis
  • Anguilla
  • St. Martin
  • St. Barthelemy
  • St. Maarten
  • Saba
  • St. Eustatius
  • British Virgin Islands

Hurricane Watch And Tropical Storm Warning In Effect For:

  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • Puerto Rico including the islands of Culebra and Vieques

All interests along the East Coast of the United States from South Florida to Maine should closely monitor the progress of this system over the next week. Tropical storm force winds are already impacting the islands, and hurricane force conditions are expected to move over the area over the next 12 hours or so. Storm surge levels are expected to be 2 to 4 feet above normal, and it is going to be accompanied by powerful waves. Rain is going to be the big story though with rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches and isolated amounts reaching 8 inches in the Leeward Islands while 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of up to a foot expected in Puerto Rico.

The key to the future track of Earl is going to be how long it will take for it to make the turn to the north. The longer the storm continues to move to the West, the more and more that the East Coast of the United States is in play. The current five day track has the center of Earl staying parallel to the East Coast of the United States with it perhaps impacting Nova Scotia by week’s end. Looking at the latest discussion from the NHC, it appears that Earl has strengthened, an eye feature has formed, and there is good outflow in all quadrants except for the Northeast Quadrant. Intensity forecasts indicate that Earl will strengthen to a major hurricane within the next 48 to 72 hours.