2015 Atlantic Season Gets an Early Start With Pre-Season Storm

On Thursday night, Hurricaneville was tracking an area of low pressure off the Southeast coast near the border of North Carolina and South Carolina.  At the time, winds were high enough at 40 to 45 miles per hour to christen a named storm, but these winds were located in the northern and western sectors, and the low wasn’t organized enough to become the first storm of 2015 in the Atlantic.

Odds were still high that the low would become a named storm with an 80 percent chance of formation within the next 48 hours and 5 days, and late Thursday night, it reached that threshold.  Subtropical Storm Ana emerged in the Atlantic according to the National Hurricane Center some 170 miles to the South-Southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  

For the first time in three years, we have had a named storm during the month of May.  It also marks the fourth time since 2003 that there has been a named storm prior to the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Since forming late Thursday night, Ana hasn’t moved much.  As a matter of fact, the National Hurricane Center currently indicates that Ana is nearly stationary, and in the same location that it was in when it formed.

Maximum sustained winds with Ana are at 45 miles per hour with gusts up to 50 miles per hour.  Minimum central pressure with the storm is 1005 millibars, or 29.68 inches of Hg.  A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for portions of the Southeastern United States coastline from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.  Knowing your Watches and Warnings, a Tropical Storm Watch means that Tropical Storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

The storm is expected to begin moving to the north-northwest later on Friday, and make a gradual turn toward the Northwest with an increase in forward speed over the weekend.  The storm could also strengthen some more.  Even though it doesn’t have much in the way of real estate to strengthen, it is moving at such a crawl that it still has a good deal of time to intensify.  While there is going to be some wind, heavy surf, and minor surge, the main threat will be rain.  Two to four inches of rainfall are expected over portions of North Carolina.

The past two Atlantic Hurricane Seasons have been fairly quiet.  Last season, there were only 9 depressions, 8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, and in 2013 there were 14 depressions and 13 named storms, but only 2 hurricanes and no major hurricanes.  Ironically, the last busy season in the Atlantic was 2012 when Tropical Storm Alberto formed in May that year.  There has been no landfalling major hurricanes in the United States in nearly 10 years.