Humberto Becomes a Hurricane Just in Time To Avoid Record

Only hours away from surpassing the mark set in 2002 by Hurricane Gustav for the longest wait an Atlantic Season had for its first hurricane, the 2013 season avoided the dubious distinction as Humberto became the season’s first Atlantic hurricane. It is not really that surprising that Humberto became a hurricane. It wasn’t a question of if, but when with this storm, and when was the key word in terms of the record books.

Humberto was classified as a hurricane on during the 5:00 AM AST Wednesday morning advisory. The 2013 season was just hours away from setting a new record for the longest wait for a first hurricane. Back in 2002, Hurricane Gustav became a hurricane on September 11th at 12:00 UTC, or about 8:00 AM EDT. Humberto has been gradually strengthening throughout the day on Wednesday. Winds have continued to increase from 75 miles per hour early this morning to 85 miles per hour in the 5:00 PM advisory.

Currently, Humberto is located some 360 miles to the West-Northwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic. As forecasted, the hurricane has made a turn to the right, and is now heading north at 12 miles per hour. Wind gusts are now up to 105 miles per hour while the minimum central pressure in the eye has dropped to 986 millibars, or 29.12 inches of Hg. Keep in mind that all of this information is based on interpretations from satellite imagery since reconnaissance aircraft are not in range to fly into the storm right now. According to the forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center, Humberto is expected to continue strengthening for the next 12 hours or so, and then begin a gradual weakening trend through five days.

Within the next 24 hours, Humberto will begin moving into cooler waters and also encounter more wind shear. Both of these ingredients are very hostile to hurricane and tropical storm development. The storm is expected to continue heading north for about the next 24 hours, and then gradually starting turning to the west again with a more northwest track on Thursday afternoon followed by a due west track on Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, Gabrielle made its closest approach to Bermuda on Wednesday, and has weakened from a 60 mph tropical storm to just a minimal storm with 40 mile per hour winds.

The forecast track of Gabrielle calls for the storm to head to the North-Northeast and accelerate over the next 48 to 72 hours. The storm is expected to be transitioning into a post-tropical or extratropical storm by the time it moves through the Canadian Maritimes on Friday and Saturday. Another area of trouble in the Atlantic is located over the Yucatan Peninsula. A broad area of low pressure exists over this region, and is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday with the possibility of cloud and shower activity increasing. Right now, the NHC gives this low a 40 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within the next five days.