Good evening everyone,

Listening and watching the latest reports, particularly from the Weather Channel, it appears that we could have a very interesting situation developing. Regardless if Ernesto regenerates into a hurricane, or tropical storm (if it does weaken to a depression), the tropical system is still going to pump in moisture ahead of the approaching cold front in the Midwestern United States. Meanwhile, a blocking pattern is developing over the Northeastern United States, which poses no exit for Ernesto.

What does this all mean? Well, for starters there is another Flood Watch for my neighborhood here in New Jersey. Rainfall amounts for on Tuesday are expected to be in the area of two inches. Those potential amounts are in addition to the occasional heavy rainfall our area received over the weekend. There were several downpours that occurred on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, particularly during the evening hours.

If you were watching Monday Night Football on ESPN, you saw that officials stopped the pre-season game between Cincinnati and Green Bay because of a severe thunderstorm in the area. A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of Ohio, and while that kind of weather is not expected here in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, but there will be plenty of rain. Then, there’s Ernesto, which is expected to move off the Cuban coast sometime, and begin to move toward the Southeastern United States. Indications at this time are that Ernesto will move over the Florida Straits into South Florida, and then turn more eastward as it feels the effects of the approaching trough from the West.

However, Ernesto will continue to head northward. It will even re-enter the water somewhere off the East Coast of Florida, where it could strengthen to a Category One Hurricane prior to making landfall in the Carolinas sometime on Thursday. After that, what is left of the storm could (and I emphasize the word COULD) move northward into the Mid-Atlantic and bring heavy rains to Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. With this possibility in mind as well as the heavy rains that affected the Garden State earlier this summer, we could have some big problems later this week, and into the Labor Day Weekend.