Good evening everyone. Sorry that I was away, but I was very tired on both Sunday and most of Monday. During that time though, I’ve been watching the situation with Ernesto. Ernesto actually became the season’s first hurricane for a brief time on Sunday morning. However, it was already situated to both Cuba and Hispaniola, which have very mountainous terrain that cut off the circulation. Ernesto then moved inland over Cuba, and weakened further to just a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and an increase in pressure of 10 mb since Saturday afternoon.

Presently located some 60 miles to the East of Camaguey in Eastern Cuba, Ernesto, the fifth named storm of 2006, is approaching the communist country’s northern coast, and is anticipated to move over open water again very soon. The current forecast, which has gradually shifted to the right over the past couple days, now has the storm affecting some portion of Florida, and moving up the eastern seaboard. Coastal areas in North and South Carolina, and Georgia are now under the cone of uncertainty.

With these latest developments, talk has now begun about the possibility of this storm affecting the Northeast and New England over the next week. There is still a long way to go with this system, but it has become more and more likely in the past couple days. Nearly two weeks ago, there was a model run that indicated a storm would form and affect the Northeast around the Labor Day Weekend. Quite often obviously, model runs that far out are often dismissed, but sometimes as events transpire, they turn out correct.

All will have to depend on other players in this weather game. Looking at the national maps from the Weather Channel, there is a double barreled low pressure system stretching from across the Mid-Atlantic into the Midwest and over the Southern Great Plains. A trough is trying to move in behind the cold front situated in the Midwest and Great Plains. The presence of this trough has been having an impact on the forecast track for Ernesto, which if you recall was previously focused on the Gulf late last week, and over the weekend.

As of right now, the track doesn’t favor this storm becoming a major hurricane at this time because Ernesto doesn’t appear to be out over water for very long. Even being a Category One prior to moving ashore along South Carolina later in the week may be a bit of a stretch. However, as things progress that could change, especially as the front trudges to the east. So, residents along the Eastern seaboard will have to watch this situation closely because it could come to pass. For now, folks in Florida need to be getting prepared for a visit from Ernesto.