A Couple Of Surprisingly Healthy Waves In The Mid-Atlantic

While Nicole has dissipated into a remnant low being absorbed by this newly formed coastal low off the Carolina coast. There is still a good deal of activity to monitor in the Atlantic this morning. We have a couple of rather healthy tropical waves in the Central Atlantic. These two waves have come together to form a rather large area of disturbed weather some 800 miles to the East of the Windward Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are not showing signs of organization at the moment. However, sea surface temperatures and upper level wind conditions are somewhat favorable for tropical development with time. At the moment though, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is only giving about a 30 percent chance of this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

It is quite unusual to see a disturbance this far out into the Atlantic so late in September. By this time, the Cape Verde season is shut down as the weather patterns begin to change in the Eastern Atlantic. As October begins, you normally see the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico be the focal point for tropical formation since the sea surface temperatures are still very warm, and upper level winds are not as hostile. We have seen this in the past week with the development of Matthew and Nicole. Storms in the Eastern and Central Atlantic such as Tropical Storm Lisa usually recurve, or dissipate.