Nicole’s Remnants To Combine With Trough For Wicked Weather

Short Lasting Tropical Storm’s Remnants To Combine To Create A New Low Capable Of Producing Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds

Good afternoon everyone. I plan to be heading up to North Jersey in a little while to take part in tonight’s festivities in Northern Jersey. The NJWO, the North Jersey Weather Observers is having their monthly meeting tonight. The main portion of the meeting will focus on the survivors of the 1938 Hurricane, better known as the Long Island Express. Two days ago was the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria making its impact on the New York Metro area as well as New England. However, some focus could be on an approaching storm.

Over the past couple of days, there had been some stirring in the tropics. A disturbed area of weather in the Caribbean got better organized, and became the 16th depression of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Despite its struggles to get a closed circulation and moisture to wrap around the center, the depression became Tropical Storm Nicole as of the 11:00 AM EDT Advisory on Wednesday. Although the storm didn’t last for long (the last advisory on Nicole was just issued at 5:00 PM EDT on Wednesday), it will bring its abundant tropical moisture up north riding a dip in the jet stream. The energy and moisture from what’s left of Nicole will combine with an upper level low to create a new low off the Southeastern United States, and will bring flooding rain and gusty winds in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

A Flood Watch had already been issued by the National Weather Service Office in Mount Holly, New Jersey. In addition, a Wind Advisory has been issued by the NWS for much of the region. The storm will start late Wednesday night, continue on Thursday, and then end on Friday. Six to ten inches of rain is possible with this system in the Mid-Atlantic. Wilmington, North Carolina has already seen almost 17 inches of rain over the past few days in what could be the worst flooding since Hurricane Floyd. The weather forecast for South Plainfield indicates some where in the range to 3 to 5 inches.

The Wind Advisory is in effect from 11:00 AM to 8:00 PM on Thursday. Sustained winds could range between 25 to 35 miles per hour with gusts in upwards of 45 miles per hour. Highest wind gusts will be along the coast. These winds could take down tree limbs, power lines, and in some cases trees themselves after the ground becomes saturated, and the tree roots loosen. This looks to be the first significant coastal storm or nor’easter of the season. You have a front that is draped along the East Coast of the United States, high pressure to the east, which is keeping the front from heading out, strong upper level energy behind the front, and abundant tropical moisture streaming up from the tropics. So, there are a lot of ingredients coming together to make some interesting weather here in the Garden State over the next 36 hours.