Over nearly the last two weeks, Hurricaneville has been tracking developments in the tropics more regularly, and each day there seems to be something new happening. Well, the Cape Verde Season is in full bloom now. We’ve had Danielle, now have Earl and Fiona, and another area of disturbed weather seems to be getting its act together. This third disturbance is well out in the Tropical Atlantic, and does seem to have a good cluster of convection associated with it. Take a look at the global map as well as the map of the Tropical Atlantic.

Western Hemisphere Satellite–Courtesy of the Weather Channel

Tropical Atlantic Satellite–Courtesy of the Weather Channel

These two images indicate that this disturbance looks a lot more healthy than Fiona does. It also has some distance between itself, Fiona, and Earl, which gives it a better chance to develop since there won’t be as much shear, and tropical waters will get a chance to warm again at the surface after Earl and Fiona passed over them. According to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center, this broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles to the Southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Currently, it has a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, but I think it looks like those odds will go up significantly before then.

Looking further east across the African continent, we can see more thunderstorm complexes headed toward the Atlantic Ocean, and these all could become tropical waves, and even cyclones in the coming week.

Africa Satellite–Courtesy of the Weather Channel.

There had been a recent slackening of projections in seasonal hurricane forecasts, but there were still indications that 2010 would be another active season in what has become the latest active cycle that began in 1995.