Watching Potential Cyclone Ten off Southeast Coast

Invest 92L Getting Its Act Together, and Could Be Irma Within Five Days

While the catastrophic flooding is taking place in Southeastern Texas from Tropical Storm Harvey on Sunday, the Atlantic Tropics continue to stir up as Invest 92L is getting its act together. The National Hurricane Center has noticed, and issued its first advisory on what is now, Potential Cyclone Ten off the Southeast coast.

As of the most recent advisory from the NHC at 8:00 PM EDT, Potential Cyclone Ten is located some 135 miles South-Southwest of Charleston, South Carolina, or about 270 miles South-Southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 miles per hour with gusts up to 45 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches of Hg.

The disturbance is currently stationary off the Southeast United States. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for South Santee River to Duck, Albemarle Sound, and Pamlico Sound. The NHC is presently giving a high probability for Potential Cyclone Ten to become either a depression or storm within 48 hours to five days. Regardless of its status, this potential cyclone is expected to bring somewhere between 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amounts of 6 inches to places along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and Southeast Virginia coast.

Although it is expected to become a tropical system over the next 24 hours according to the 5:00 PM Discussion from the NHC, it is not expected to remain tropical for long. The potential cyclone is expected to transform from a barotropic to a baroclinic or post-tropical system within 48 hours. The cyclone is expected to merge with an approaching cold front, and that will create a shearing condition that will limit development, and keep it on a path that will carry it over the Carolinas and Southeastern Virginia and then out to sea.

There is a chance that this cyclone will affect Newfoundland as an extratropical system later in the week. Coastal Newfoundland is within the Cone of Uncertainty for late afternoon Thursday although the forecast center of the system is expected to remain over the North Atlantic. If this potential cyclone does intensify and organize into a tropical storm, it will be named Irma. So far, the pace of this season is well above average with the 9th named storm usually coming on October 4th. Back in 2011, Irene was coming through New Jersey on this date.

As of right now, there have been 10 potential cyclones, 9 depressions, 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and one major hurricane. Things have really ramped up as expected over the past couple of weeks as we move into the peak of the season, and more classic Cape Verde storms take shape. Speaking of the Cape Verde storms, another wave moved off the West African coast today.