2016 Atlantic Season Officially Begins

Two Named Storms Already in the Books in What Could be an Active Year

On Wednesday, the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially kicked off with a little bit of fanfare. With an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean near the Florida Straits and the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie still lurking off the Mid-Atlantic coast, there were some things to talk about and monitor on what usually is a quiet day. The season is still off to a very active start in what could be a busier year.

The season has already seen two rare early season named storms with Alex forming in the Central Atlantic near the Azores as a subtropical storm in the Central Atlantic during the middle of January, and becoming a strong Category One Hurricane with 85 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 981 millibars or 28.97 inches of Hg before eventually weakening and dissipating. Alex only last three days.

Fast forward to late last week when Tropical Storm Bonnie emerged off the Southeastern United States after being an area of disturbed weather in the Bahamas earlier in the week. The storm did eventually weaken and come ashore as a tropical depression but still brought a good deal of rain to South Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic states. Here at GWC in South Plainfield, the storm combined with an approaching cold front to produce an impulse of disturbed weather that resulted in 0.82 inches of rainfall. Other areas received even more.

The next named storm on the Atlantic list is Colin, which replaced Charley on the list of storm names in the 2010 season after Charley was retired following its devastating landfall in Punta Gorda, Florida in 2004. Charley was one of several storms in 2004 that were retired. Others included Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. Colin may emerge sometime early next week. Long range models began hinting on Tuesday that something may develop in the Northern Caribbean near the Florida Straits and Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Right now the NHC gave the disturbance a 20 percent chance of formation over the next five days on Wednesday.

However, the feature now being closely monitored is Bonnie, which reformed late Thursday morning off the outer banks of North Carolina as a depression, and is expected to bring more rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic. Right now, Tropical Depression Bonnie is located some 25 miles off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds with Bonnie are a nuisance at 35 mph with gusts up to 40 near the coast, but the big story with this system will be the rain. The latest NHC advisory indicates anywhere from one to three inches of rain could fall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Isolated areas could see up to 5 inches.

Returning to the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season itself, there have been several seasonal forecasts issued by Colorado State, the Weather Channel, NOAA, and Accu-Weather, and while they may differ on the exact number of potential storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, they all agree that the 2016 season could be a more busy one compared to recent years. Keep in mind that the United States has not experienced a landfalling major hurricane since 2005 when the likes of Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma ransacked the United States coastline from Texas to Florida. The recent El Niño that has hindered development in the Atlantic for the past couple years or so has diminished while a La Niña is forecast to emerge.

The only ingredient that is preventing an active season from becoming a clear certainty in the Atlantic is the varying sea surface temperatures around the Atlantic Basin. While some areas are normal to above normal, there are others such as in the Northern Atlantic near Greenland and in the Eastern Atlantic that are running cooler than usual. With the two named storms including a hurricane already forming this year, the signs may be there for a busy and perhaps dangerous Atlantic Hurricane Season.