Coastal Low to Bring Some Chaos to Jersey and Mid-Atlantic

Storm Forecast to Dump Over an Inch of Rain on Saturday

Earlier this week, we discussed how recent rains helped slow down the dry weather that had dominated much of the first third of 2016. Since May 1st, Greg’s Weather Center has received 1.84 inches of rain for a year to date total of 11.49 inches. About a third of of May’s monthly rainfall came in one day. On the way though is a storm that will bring a good deal more than that.

A coastal low has been gaining steam over the last 24 to 36 hours, and it is forecast to move through the Mid-Atlantic including the Garden State starting on Saturday afternoon. It is expected to not only cause a big mess at the 2016 Preakness Stakes in Baltimore, but also bring between an inch to an inch and a half to the NYC metro area. Heavy rain is expected to produce a very sloppy field for the second leg of the Triple Crown.

At the beginning of the week, the forecast models indicated that the storm was going to move through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The forecast held until Thursday when some of the models showed some doubt by indicating that the low would stay further to the south, and only bring heavy rainfall to South Jersey. Prospects changed on Friday when the models went back to their earlier prognostication, and brought the storm further north through New Jersey, NYC metro, and Long Island.

As of right now (1:49 PM EDT on Saturday afternoon, May 21st), skies are just overcast. No rain has fallen yet. Temperature has been steady for the past couple hours at 63 degrees. Humidity is at 58 percent for a dew point of 47. Barometer has been falling sharply at 30.02 inches of Hg. Winds are light. However, expect those conditions to change as the low pushes toward our region. The NWS Mount Holly office indicates the heaviest rain will fall between 2:00 and 5:00 PM this afternoon. Rainfall amounts during that time could be as high as six tenths of an inch.

The rain could linger around in the form of showers for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday as well. The sun may not make a comeback until mid-week with temperatures climbing into the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.