Nor’easter Pays New Jersey a Visit On Thursday and Friday Followed By a Possible Threat from Hurricane Joaquin

After several months of mostly dry weather, New Jersey is about to make up for lost time.  Already the Garden State has received anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of rain.  Here at GWC in South Plainfield, the rainfall gauge has picked up 1.02 inches since Tuesday afternoon.  Yesterday’s heavy rain also caused a power outage in the neighborhood where GWC is located.

The heavy rain over the last 24 hours is only the beginning of what could be a very serious one-two weather punch for not only New Jersey but for the Mid-Atlantic and New England States from the Carolinas on up into Maine.  The first punch is expected to arrive during the day on Thursday in the form of a Nor’easter, which is expected to produce a plethora of weather related problems including localized flooding, coastal flooding, gusty winds, and even beach erosion.

Earlier on Wednesday, the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey issued a Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday night until late Saturday afternoon.  There has already been some issues along the coast this week thanks to the astronomical high tide that accompanied the Harvest Moon and the lunar eclipse that took place on Sunday night, and lingered into Monday morning.  Clouds began to develop on Tuesday morning, and haven’t left as the first wave of storm systems over the next week moved in.

According to the local forecast produced by the NWS office in Mount Holly, skies will remain cloudy on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning with rain developing during the day on Thursday.  The steadier and heavier rains will begin on Thursday night, and continue through Friday and into Saturday with breezy conditions also developing.  The probability of rain in the forecast goes from 50 percent during the day on Thursday to between 80 and 90 percent on Friday.  Earlier in the week, one of the European model runs had indicated the possibility of up to 6 inches of rain for much of the Northeastern corridor.   In addition, the conditions along the coast will begin to deteroriate.

With increasing surge along with wave heights between 6 to 10 feet along the Jersey Shore thanks to sustained winds between 14 and 21 miles per hour with gusts as high as gale force, coastal flooding is very likely.  At high tide, the forecasted water level at Sandy Hook is expected to reach 7 feet while at Seaside Heights down in Ocean County, the predicted water level is expected to reach between 6.5 and 7 feet according to the NWS.  Keep in mind, this is just for the nor’easter, which is expected to last into Saturday.  The second punch of this one-two weather combo is anticipated to arrive sometime on Sunday into Monday.

Since September 15th, there has been an area of disturbed weather off the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coast.  The disturbance was noted over the weekend as it produced heavy surf along the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.  A couple days ago, this disturbance became TD #11, which then became Tropical Storm Joaquin on Tuesday.  Late Tuesday night, Joaquin strengthened to become only the third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Season, but it could be the biggest threat yet to the United States mainland, which hasn’t experienced a landfalling major hurricane since 2005.

Currently, Joaquin is a Category One Hurricane stirring near the Bahamas with winds up to 85 miles per hour.  Still in an area with favorable sea surface temperatures, and very little in the way of upper level wind shear to tear its developing thunderstorms apart, Joaquin is forecasted to strengthen to a major hurricane by sometime on Friday, and is also expected to make landfall somewhere in the area from the Carolinas to the Tidewater area of Virginia by Sunday.  New Jersey, which has had recent impacts from Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, has been in the cone of uncertainty for several forecast cycles now.

Although there is a lot of uncertainty on the forecast track of Joaquin, it is becoming more and more likely that this storm will make landfall somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic and affect the Garden State in some shape or form.  Bottom line, pay attention to the weather forecasts on your local news as well as your most reliable weather app, and here at GWC and Hurricaneville.  There is going to be a more comprehensive report on Joaquin shortly from Hurricaneville in the blog.