Winds Have Increased; Gusty Winds and Heavy Rains Along South Carolina Coast
As we continue to watch the continuing saga with Harvey in not only Texas, but also Louisiana now, Hurricaneville is also monitoring Potential Cyclone Ten, which is yet to acquire enough tropical characteristics to become a tropical cyclone. Winds have increased a little while pressure has dropped slightly over the last 24 hours.
In the most recent advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida at 8:00 PM EDT, the disturbance was located some 35 miles to the South-Southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, or approximately 160 miles to the Southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. The disturbance had been stationary earlier in the day, but is now moving again to the Northeast at 12 miles per hour.
Maximum sustained winds have increased a little to 40 miles per hour. Minimum central pressure in the low has fallen slightly to 29.71 inches of Hg, or 1006 millibars. A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect for North of Surf City to Duck along the North Carolina coast as well as Albermarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect from Surf City, North Carolina to the South Santee River.
Last night, the NHC had given PTC Ten a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours to 5 days. This evening, the odds have decreased to just a medium threat with a 60 percent probability of development over the next 48 hours to 5 days. Gusty winds and heavy rains have been already impacting the South Carolina coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Rainfall is likely to be the biggest threat from PTC Ten, or if it becomes a named storm, Irma. Forecasts are calling for rainfall amounts between 3 to 6 inches along Northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and Southeastern Virginia coasts. Isolated amounts could reach 9 inches. There is also a chance of dangerous surf and rip current conditions from swells generated by the disturbance as well as tornadoes.
Looking at the most recent forecast discussion from the NHC, the intensity forecast is calling for PTC Ten to become a tropical storm or depression within the next 12 to 24 hours. Afterwards, the disturbance is expected to become post tropical, or extratropical but still having its winds increase to as high as 70 miles per hour by 72 hours thanks to an energy conversion resulting from the storm morphing from a tropical or barotropic system to an extratropical, or baroclinic system.
Moving on to the forecast track, the cone of uncertainty has narrowed a bit since last night. The disturbance is expected to remain quite close to the coast until the mid-afternoon on Tuesday, and then turning more to the east and out to sea. By early Wednesday morning, PTC Ten is forecast to be several hundred miles to the Southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey. Within twelve hours after that, the storm will race well to the south of the Gulf of Maine. Extreme Southeastern Newfoundland is on the edge of the cone of uncertainty by late Thursday.