Still Watching Disturbed Weather Over Florida

With Harvey Getting All the Attention, Invest 92L Can’t Be Forgotten

Although Harvey has moved inland, and has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm over Eastern Texas, it will still be a news story for the next several days as it slows down to a crawl, and dumps torrential rains over the region. Nevertheless, we can’t forget about what else may be happening in the rest of the Atlantic Tropics.

One of those other things is an area of disturbed weather in the South Florida that has been spreading a good deal of rainfall and unsettled weather for that area as well as the Bahamas. This elongated and unorganized area of disturbed weather stretches from Southwestern Florida into the Western Atlantic. Upper level winds in the area of Invest 92L is not favorable for development, but that could change over the next several days.

The disturbance is expected to move off Florida on Sunday, and move up toward the Southeastern coast of the United States including Georgia and South Carolina, and merge with a cold front by the middle of next week. Gusty winds and rough surf to the Georgia and Carolina coast is expected to develop during the course of the week. Heavy rains are expected in Central Florida over the next couple days.

Currently, the National Hurricane Center gives Invest 92L a medium chance of development, which translates to a 40 percent chance over the next 48 hours to a 50 percent chance over the next five days. Looking at the forecast models, the European model has Invest 92L in the area of Wilmington, North Carolina within the next 72 hours, and then heading out into the Atlantic by 96 hours. The GFS has the disturbance hugging the Georgia and South Carolina coast within the next 48 hours, and staying along the southern coast of North Carolina by 72 hours.

The GFS also has Invest 92L a little more closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast, but still offshore in 96 hours, and then approaching the Canadian Maritimes within five days. The Canadian, or CMC model, has a similar approach to the GFS with the storm deepening a bit off Cape Hatteras within 72 hours, and then staying a bit closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast than the GFS by 96 hours before heading up towards the Canadian Maritimes by the end of five days.

Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic, there is another tropical wave in Western Africa poised to move into the Eastern Atlantic on Sunday. Sea surface and upper level wind conditions are expected to be supportive for development over the next few days as the wave moves westward at a very brisk clip of 20 miles per hour. The NHC currently gives a low probability for development over the next 48 hours to 5 days. Remember, the Cape Verde season is beginning to heat up as we move toward the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on September 10th.