Remnants of Newly Formed Tropical Storm Could Bring Much Needed Soaking Rains

Within the past hour on Thursday morning, Tropical Storm Karen emerged in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Hunter aircraft detected a closed circulation with the system as well as strong thunderstorms with winds up to 60 miles per hour. While there is disagreement among the forecast models on how strong it will be and where it will go, there is a likelihood that what is left from Karen will bring some significant rains into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next week.

Located in the Southeastern Gulf just off the coast of the Northern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, Karen already has winds of 60 miles per hour, and is forecast to make landfall anywhere between Morgan City, Louisiana and Indian Pass, Florida sometime this weekend. Beyond that though, the storm will be a rainmaker as it combines with a winter storm coming out of the Rockies. Winter Storm Atlas as it is called by the Weather Channel is bringing a dual threat of heavy snows in the higher elevations of the Rockies and severe storms and possible tornadoes in the upper Midwest states of Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

The official five day track from the National Hurricane Center has Karen coming ashore in the area of Mobile, Alabama early Sunday afternoon, and then pushing to the Northeast across Georgia and the Southern Appalachians on Monday before moving into the Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday morning. The combination of the two storms will bring a good deal of moisture to New Jersey as well as the rest of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. It will be welcome rain though. Over the last 45 days here at GWC in South Plainfield, there have been 35 days of no measurable rainfall. Twenty-six of those days have come in the past month. Only 2.99 inches of rain has fallen here in the last month and a half.

The GFS indicates that rain will start falling on Monday morning, and become very heavy during the evening hours into early Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts could be as high as two inches by the time the remnants of Karen and the leftovers from the winter storm out west move out of the area. The European model has the remnants combining with the winter storm out west, and moving into our region by Monday night.