Two Disturbances in Atlantic Basin Both Have 80% Chance of Forming

Over the past couple weeks in the Atlantic, there has been a lull in activity. Since the demise of Dorian toward the end of July, the tropics in the Atlantic have been very quiet. The Eastern Pacific has been more busy with Tropical Storm Flossie, Hurricane Gil, and Hurricane Henriette forming and making a beeline toward the Hawaiian Islands before fading out. The Western Pacific has also been a bit active with Typhoon Utor dominating the recent headlines as a Category Four storm that rolled through the Philippines before heading into Southern China.

The Atlantic, which still looks to be above average this year, is beginning to wake up with a couple of disturbances emerging over the past few days. First and foremost, there is an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean that appears to be very close to becoming either a tropical depression or storm. As of the most recent outlook at 8:00 PM EDT from the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance is located in the Northwestern Caribbean, and is moving to the West-Northwest at 10 miles per hour. Winds in squalls are reaching gale force on the eastern side and the disturbance continues to get better organized.

Right now, odds are at 70 percent that the disturbance will become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, and at 80 percent for tropical formation over the next 5 days. The disturbance could become a depression or storm before making landfall in the Yucatan on Thursday. However, when it moves back out into the Southern Gulf of Mexico, upper level winds may not be favorable for development. Regardless, areas along the Gulf Coast should be prepared for significant rainfall in the least as this disturbance heads to the north. Another feature drawing interest is in the Eastern Atlantic.

Slowly, but surely, we are moving into the prime portion of the Atlantic Hurricane Season with the Cape Verde storms having a better chance to develop. Over the course of the first two and a half months of the season, two factors has been limiting development in the Atlantic. The first factor has been the dry air over the Central and Eastern Atlantic. Two named storms that formed during the month of July: Chantal and Dorian both developed in the heart of the Atlantic only to fizzle out thanks to the dry air in that part of the world, hostile upper level winds, and the fast forward movements of these storms circulations.

Over the past week though, disturbances have been coming off Africa with a lot of moisture, which has helped break the spell of dry air in the Atlantic. In addition, a Kelvin Wave developed in the Western Atlantic and moved eastward, which helped make upper level wind conditions more hospitable for development. Now, we have a very healthy tropical low located approximately 100 miles to the South-Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm activity in this area continues to get better organized. Right now, there is an 80 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours, and through the next five days. As a matter of fact, it is possible that this disturbance could become a depression Wednesday night or Thursday.

As we move into the weekend and early next week, this disturbance will be moving into the Central Atlantic, which currently has hostile upper level wind conditions. GWC and Hurricaneville will continue to monitor both of these features.