One Disturbance Likely To Become Depression Or Storm; Other Two Slowly Developing

While Gordon passed east of the Azores this morning, three disturbances showed more signs of getting better organized in other parts of the Atlantic.  One of the disturbances, which has been monitored over the past several days in the Eastern and Central Atlantic, has a better circulation, but shower and thunderstorm activity remains low.  The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours.

Located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, this disturbance, which is an area of low pressure, is still moving a bit fast at 20 to 25 miles per hour, and that might be what is holding this back from becoming a depression or storm.  Thunderstorm activity needs to develop around the center of circulation, and if it moves too fast, the thunderstorms down get an opportunity to do that.  Nevertheless, upper level dynamics and sea surface temperatures are favorable for more development.

Meanwhile, east of this low is another disturbance located about just to the south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic.  This disturbance, a tropical wave has limited convection associated with it as it moves to the west between 15 to 20 miles per hour.   Gradual development is expected with this wave, and the NHC gives it about a 30 percent chance of formation over the next 48 hours.  Moving closer to home, another area of disturbed weather is bubbling up in the Gulf of Mexico.

This disturbance, which is associated with a surface trough, continues to fire up showers and thunderstorms, but it is very close to land so development will be difficult.  However, if it moves out over the open warm waters of the Gulf, there is a chance that it could gradually develop.  The NHC is also giving this disturbance a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.  Finally, a look at Tropical Storm Gordon in the Northeastern Atlantic.

As of the 11:00 AM EDT Advisory from the NHC, Gordon had weakened some more to have winds of 65 miles per hour, gusts of up to 75 miles per hour, and a minimal central pressure of 990 millibars, or 29.23 inches of Hg.  The storm was located 255 miles East of the Azores, and was moving to the East-Northeast at 16 miles per hour.  The weather service on the Azores reported a pressure of 980 millibars, or 28.93 inches of Hg, a sustained wind of 53 knots or about 65 miles per hour, and a gust of 70 knots, or 80 miles per hour on Santa Maria Island.

Gordon continues to get weaker as it moves into cooler waters and encounters more southwesterly shear.  The wind shear is exposing the center to the south of the deepest convection in the system.  The forecast calls for Gordon to become post-tropical within 12 hours.