Since last week, I’ve been periodically checking out the GFS model runs, and they have continued to hint at an East Coast storm sometime in the future.  The time frame has gradually pushed out from August 20th to August 22nd last week to now Labor Day Weekend.  Interesting way to end the summer, and begin my vacation.

The first model runs from yesterday’s 18z (2:00 PM EDT) run showed a storm coming right up the Eastern Seaboard and making landfall across Long Island and going up into New England.  The 00z run from 8:00 PM EDT showed the storm moving more to the right out into the open Atlantic.  The next run from 06Z, or 2:00 AM EDT showed the storm moving back over to the left and making landfall again across Long Island.  The 12Z (8:00 AM EDT) run showed the storm making a track more to the left and over land in the Caribbean before turning north and heading into the U.S. coast in the Carolinas.

The storm appears to be developing around the time of August 25th when it first enters the model loop animation near Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles.  It eventually tracks into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast around the August 31st to September 3rd time frame depending on what model run we are looking at.  Again, this is two weeks out so there is a lot of time for things to change.  They can even change as quickly as the next model run.  Waves are moving off the African coast now, and one in particular is showing signs of tropical formation.  So, we’ll have to keep an eye on the tropics to see if anything will come up this way.

The tropics are heating up.  The statistical peak of the season is less than a month away (September 10th).  Time to get prepared.