Tropical Wave In Eastern Atlantic Also Getting Better Organized

Activity in the Tropical Atlantic continued to ramp up on Friday with two named storms now including one hurricane while another disturbance appears to be getting its act together. Tropical Storm Helene emerged from the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Gordon, which had weakened slightly overnight on Thursday, became the season’s third hurricane in the Central Atlantic. Then, the tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic became better organized on Friday, and presently has a 30 percent chance of becoming a depression or storm within the next 48 hours.

The most immediate threat of the three is Helene, which became the eighth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season on Friday afternoon after Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the storm during the day. The storm has struggled with some weakening occurring over the past 12 hours. Maximum sustained winds at the moment are only minimal tropical storm force at 40 miles per hour with gusts up to 45 knots or 50 miles per hour. Pressure has risen slightly to 29.71 inches or 1006 millibars.

The most recent advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Barra de Natula to La Cruz. The storm is not very large with tropical storm force winds only extending some 35 miles from the center. The storm will primarily be a rainmaker with rainfall amounts ranging from 4 to 8 inches in the affected areas. Storm surge levels are only expected to be one to two feet above normal. The latest forecast discussion indicates that Helene will not strengthen any further due to its close proximity to land, and it should make landfall within the next 24 hours.

Moving eastward into the North Central Atlantic, we have Gordon, which appeared to be close to becoming a hurricane on Thursday, but took a step back during the overnight hours into Friday morning. However, over the past 24 hours, Gordon has rebounded to become a hurricane as of the 5:00 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. The hurricane, which is now located some 815 miles to the West-Southwest of the Azores, now has winds of minimal hurricane strength at 75 miles per hour with gusts of 90 miles per hour, and a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars or 29.18 inches of Hg.

The storm system is still moving to the east at 18 miles per hour, and should affect portions of the Azores by Sunday. In response, the government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Central and Eastern Azores. The latest forecast discussion from the NHC indicates that Gordon has become better organized over the past few hours with convection wrapping around the center, and an eye feature forming. The forecast also indicates that Gordon should remain a hurricane for the next 12 to 18 hours under favorable upper level wind conditions as well as marginal sea surface temperatures. By the time the storm reaches the Azores on Sunday, it will still be a strong tropical storm. Gordon should eventually weaken and become extratropical over the next several days as more shear and cooler ocean waters begin to take its toll.

Finally, a bit further to the south and east in the Eastern Atlantic, Hurricaneville continues to monitor a disturbance that moved off the coast of Africa over the past day and a half. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized and concentrated with this wave. Sea surface temperatures are still not quite there in that part of the Atlantic yet, but slow development is possible as the wave heads to the west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. The NHC gives this wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Taking a look at the Atlantic season to date, there have been 8 depressions, 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. So, despite the gloomy outlook early on, and the threat of an El Nino, the Atlantic has pretty much equaled the pace it had this time last season.