GFS Model Runs Indicate Major Hurricane Somewhere Along East Coast In Two Weeks

During the course of every day, I check the internet for the latest information on storms, and get a chance to see other information about the tropics. One thing that caught my eye came up on a couple of occasions today. The model runs of the GFS dynamical model have been hinting at the possibility of a significant east coast storm around the time period of August 20th to the 22nd.

So, I took a look at each run of the model, 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z. For those of you that don’t know what that means, those are model runs every six hours Zulu or GMT time, or about 8 PM, 2 AM, 8 AM, and 2 PM EDT. The 00Z run indicated that a major hurricane would affect the Southeast during the time of around August 20th, and make landfall somewhere in the area of Georgia and South Carolina. Similar to a track made by Hurricane Hugo back in September 1989.

The 06Z run was even more interesting. It showed a scenario that was a bit more to the right of the 00Z run, and had the storm come up the East Coast of the United States and into Long Island and New England. Looking at the 12Z run, the track was a bit wobbly, but still had it in the area of New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island around August 21st. The 18Z run had the storm well off to the right of the East Coast, and basically being a fish storm.

Taking a step back a bit, the GFS model is a numerical model that takes into account all different types of weather variables, and puts them in motion over a period of time in the future. In this case, the GFS has the computing power and data points to forecast out some 384 hours, or 16 days. It can look out over two weeks into the future, and give possibilities. Now, hurricane forecasting has always been an inexact science, and while forecast tracks have improved especially in the three to five day time frame, intensity forecasts still struggle. Irene was a classic example of this last year. So, anything beyond five days is going to be treated with a great deal of skepticism.

However, it is very interesting to see that could be a possibility. The Atlantic tropics are heating up. Besides Ernesto in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico, we still have the remnants of Tropical Storm Florence to the northeast of the islands, and another more vigorous tropical wave to the east in the Central Atlantic. Currently, this disturbance has a 30 percent chance of becoming a depression or storm in the next 48 hours. Further to the east is another strong tropical wave about to depart from the East Coast of Africa, which could be the wave that the different runs of the GFS model are picking up.

The overall pattern across the Eastern United States this summer has been dominated by a strong dome of high pressure in the Midwest. This high pressure system has been responsible for what has become an historic drought as well as relentless heat. Temperatures in many parts of the Midwest have been well over 100 degrees for a good deal of the summer to date. In addition, many states in the farm belt have experienced some form of drought if not significant drought. Severe storms have been spinning up around the periphery of this high, and have battered parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on numerous occasions since the end of June.

This time of year, we are always dealing with the subtropical ridge or Bermuda High in the Atlantic. This is often the steering mechanism that drives the Cape Verde or classic hurricanes from the tropics. The position of this ridge and the extent of the high over the Midwestern U.S. will be key players if a storm were to develop and head in the general direction of Florida and the East Coast. Tropical storms and hurricanes, especially well formed ones, always look for an alley way, a crease, or weakness to exploit, the right positioning of these two high pressure systems will determine where and how big the alleyway will be for such a storm to come up.

Could we see a repeat of what happened at the end of August last year when Irene paid a visit? Could it be worse? All of this is too early to tell, but my feeling is that the way this summer has gone here in New Jersey as well as much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, anything is possible. As bad as Irene was for some places, it wasn’t as bad as forecasters had indicated. We were very lucky, and that was all in part to the dry air that entrenched itself in the storm after it emerged from the Bahamas. There are some interesting similarities or coincidences between this summer and last summer.

Both summers had very warm June and Julys. Both 2011 and 2012 had their share of severe weather leading up to August although 2012 had started out with a bit of a respite that began following the October snowstorm that surprised much of the Garden State and Northeast. It is a bit too early to tell whether August 2012 will be as wet as August 2011, but since July 16th, there have been 14 days of measurable rainfall in South Plainfield totaling 4.05 inches, the wettest period of the year to date. The only major difference between the two years was that 2011 had a much snowier winter and wetter early spring than this year did. As a matter of fact, a couple dry spells from late February to late April and mid-June to mid-July put this area on the cusp of a drought.

Now, again all of these things are just similarities or coincidences, but sometimes these kinds of things are reflections of overall climate patterns of the period, and how weather systems are positioning themselves overall in particular parts of the country and the world for that matter. So, the occurrences of these events are something to consider. Bottom line is that you should be prepared for the possibility of a tropical storm or hurricane every year if you live at or near the coast. New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut are no exceptions to this rule. As Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Ike, the slew of storms from 2004, Andrew and others have proven, it only takes one storm to change the landscape for years to come. We were lucky the last time with Irene, and that may not be the case this time.