Ernesto Weakens Over Yucatan

Downgraded To A Tropical Storm

Hurricaneville continues to monitor developments with Ernesto as it continues to move across the Southern Yucatan in Mexico. After making landfall north of the historic coastal city of Chetumal late Tuesday night with winds of 85 miles per hour, the storm has gradually weakened over the high plateau terrain of the Yucatan.

As of 8:00 PM EDT this morning, the second hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic season was downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. Wind gusts have decreased to minimal hurricane force as of 5:00 AM Wednesday. Minimum central pressure has risen to 990 millibars or 29.23 inches of Hg.

Ernesto was moving to the West at 15 miles per hour as of the most recent advisory (next advisory will be out within the hour), but the latest infrared imagery detects more of a southwesterly movement with the storm as it approaches the west coast of the Yucatan. So, we’ll have to see if this storm continues that pattern, or will it steer back more to the west. If it continues this southwesterly motion, the storm will bring heavier rains to Southern Mexico and Guatemala.

In addition, regeneration into a hurricane on the Atlantic side would be moot, and more possible if it gets to the Eastern Pacific. A lot of things can happen though so we’ll continue to keep an eye on it. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Mexico from Barra de Natula to Coatzacoalcos. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Tulum, the coast of Belize from north of Belize City, the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Celestun southward and westward to Coatzcoalcos, and north of Barra de Natula to Tuxpan.

The storm will be a significant rainmaker for Mexico and much of Central America. Rainfall amounts will average between 4 to 8 inches with some locations getting between 8 to 12 inches. The heavy rainfall caused by the orographic lifting of the tremendous tropical moisture over the higher terrain of the plateau of the Yucatan will produce significant flash flooding and mudslides. If the storm continues to head southwest like it has shown in the past few hours, expect southern Mexico to fall prey to the torrential rains, flash flooding, and mudslides.