Storm Could Become Hurricane By Tuesday; Florence Fades

Sorry for the lack of posts about the latest in the tropics for the past day and a half, but there was severe weather in my area on Sunday, and that took precedence.  Anyway, the Tropical Atlantic is not as busy as it was over the weekend.  The reason for that is because Tropical Storm Florence began its forecasted weakening trend on Sunday, and became a depression early Monday morning before fading into a post-tropical low in Monday’s 11:00 AM Advisory from the NHC.

Florence still managed to exceed expectations during the course of its somewhat short life.  At peak intensity, the storm grew to have 60 mile per hour winds.  Early forecast discussions indicated that it would only get as strong as 45 miles per hour.  Nevertheless, cooler sea surface temperatures and a southwesterly wind shear at the upper levels became too much for the storm to overcome.  Complete dissipation is expected within five days according to the last discussion issued late Monday morning.

With the departure of Florence in the Central Atlantic and no other disturbances to watch at the moment, the only show in town is Tropical Storm Ernesto.  The storm has gradually gotten its act together over the more warmer waters of the Western Caribbean.  Despite battling cooler sea surface temperatures in the Central Caribbean on Saturday, the storm managed to hold together, and now has a chance to become a hurricane by Tuesday morning.  If Ernesto does become a hurricane, it would be the second one this season.

As of 5:00 PM EDT on Monday afternoon, Ernesto was located some 135 miles to the Northeast of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the border between Nicaragua and Honduras, or about 330 miles east of Isla Roatan in Honduras.  Maximum sustained winds are now at strong tropical storm levels at 65 miles per hour with gusts in excess of hurricane force.  Minimum central pressure with the storm is down to 995 millibars, or 29.38 inches of Hg.  Ernesto was moving to the West-Northwest at 12 miles per hour.

Over the weekend, Ernesto was moving much faster.  On Saturday night, the storm was moving at a clip of 22 miles per hour, which may have helped hinder its development.  After losing some organization late Saturday, the storm began to slow down, and rebound.  Moving more slowly over much warmer water, Ernesto has regained steam, and is poised to become a hurricane.  Forecasts indicate that the storm should strengthen to a strong Category One Hurricane by 36 hours before moving inland.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft did indicate that the storm showed some sudden strengthening earlier in the day, but that has since leveled off.  The pressure has ceased dropping for now while the colder cloud tops have warmed, and there is less lightning activity associated with the core of the system.  Prior to leveling off, Ernesto experienced a drop of 15 millibars over a span of 33 hours including a 9 millibar drop from 8:00 to 11:00 AM on Monday morning.

A lot of watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the Western Caribbean.  The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Watch for its entire coastline.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Punta Allen.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Honduras coast from the Nicaraguan border to Punta Sal including the Bay Islands and along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Allen to Tulum.  A Tropical Storm Watch covers the Honduras coast from west of Punta Sal to the Guatemala border, and from north of Tulum to Cancun on the Yucatan Peninsula east coast.

Right now, there is a 70 to 90 percent chance of tropical storm force winds along the Southeastern portion of the Yucatan within the next five days.  Hurricaneville will continue to monitor the progress of Ernesto as it continues to head westward in the Caribbean.