Chances For Development Within The Next 48 Hours Are At Best 20 Percent

We continue to watch activity around the Atlantic on this Friday night, and while there are things stirring about, none of them show signs of tropical formation over the next couple days.

First, we take a look out into the Western Atlantic well east of the United States Eastern Seaboard. The remnants of what was Tropical Storm Debby is still hanging around. Fortunately, it is in cooler water, and despite having gale force winds in the southeastern quadrant, Debby’s remnants have not been able to generate any significant shower or thunderstorm activity. Chances for development over the next 48 hours are only 10 percent.

Next, we travel southwestward across Florida and the Southeastern United States to the Western Gulf of Mexico. If you recall in my Tracking the Tropics report on Wednesday, there was an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf. The disturbance had just pushed out from Southeastern Mexico. Over the last two days, shower and thunderstorm development has increased with this disturbance. However, the NHC indicates that pressures are too high in this region. Also, it is important to note that the disturbance is getting fairly close to land. Chances for development in the next 48 hours are only 10 percent.

Finally, we take a trip to the Central Atlantic some 800 miles to the East of the Windward Islands to take a look at the tropical wave that has been heading westward toward the Lesser Antilles these past couple days. When we left it on Wednesday, there was not much in the way of showers and storms associated with it. Since that time, it has become much better organized. Still, conditions are a bit hostile to development right now, so tropical formation will be slow to occur according to the NHC. Chances for development in the next 48 hours are only 20 percent.

Moving on to the Eastern Pacific, we have a lot less activity than we did two days ago when no tropical development was expected. There are some clouds and showers to the south of Costa Rica and Panama as well as some well to the southwest of the Mexican West Coast. No development is expected over the next 48 hours. Lastly, a look at the Central Pacific. Water temperatures in this region, especially around Hawaii, are usually too cold to support development. Occasionally, a storm will develop in this region or move in from the Eastern Pacific, and make a run for Hawaii.

With that said, we have several areas of thin cloudiness around the Hawaiian Island chain this evening. Much of the convection is well off to the south along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). No chances for development at this time.