Storm Fails To Become Major Hurricane As Dry Air And Shear Tear It Apart

Two nights ago, Hurricane Rina appeared to be on the cusp of becoming the fifth major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Season.  The storm was bathing in warm water, and had winds just shy of Category Three Hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  However, dry air swooped in from the north while wind shear built up from the southwest thanks to convection near Nicaragua and Honduras.

As a result, the once powerful storm decayed under the weight of the dry air and shear.  Closing in on the resort locations of Cozumel and Cancun in the Yucatan Peninsula, Rina was being torn apart.  Despite a blow-up of convection during the day on Thursday, the low level circulation began to get exposed to the elements around it.  Maximum sustained winds first dropped to minimal hurricane status, then Rina was downgraded to strong tropical storm status, and now it is at moderate tropical storm strength.

According to the 5:00 PM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, the storm was located some 50 miles to the South-Southwest of Cozumel, Mexico, and 115 miles Northeast of Chetumal, Mexico.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to only 60 miles per hour with gusts up to 70 miles per hour.  Barometric pressure has risen to 992 millibars, or 29.29 inches of Hg.  Tropical storm force winds reach 70 miles from the center.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern and eastern coasts of the Yucatan from Punta Gruesa to Progreso.  While the storm has picked up some forward speed, it continues to move very slowly.  Rina is moving to the North at 7 miles per hour.  The forecast discussion is calling for Rina to continue to weaken with it becoming a depression within 48 hours, and a post-tropical low in 72 hours.  The model tracks are beginning to agree on a track towards the south and the northern coast of Honduras by the end of five days.