Hurricane Irene Weakens Further As It Pushes Toward Outer Banks

Dry Air May Have Saved The Day By Making It Difficult To Strengthen

For those living in New Jersey, you may have noticed skies becoming cloudy in the past few hours. Those are actually from the leading edge of Hurricane Irene. These clouds have pushed far enough north to cover the area along Interstate 78 that stretches from Eastern Pennsylvania to New York City.

There is some good news to report though. Hurricane Irene has weakened a bit more again. Since being a Category Three Hurricane with 115 mile per hour winds on Thursday night, the storm has gradually weakened to a strong Category Two system with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per hour. Pressure has risen a bit to 951 millibars, or 28.08 inches of Hg. Wind gusts are down to 120 miles per hour.

While there has been very little in the way of wind shear, and sea surface temperatures that are favorable for development, Irene has weakened rather then strengthened. Why has that happened? As the storm began to pull away from the northern Bahamas on Thursday night, it appeared to show signs of intensification as the eye appeared briefly. Within a few hours though, dry air began to penetrate the system from its western flank.

Within the past 24 hours, the dry air has continued to persist, and has hampered any chance of intensification. Little change is expected with Irene prior to landfall in North Carolina. After that, it will begin to enter cooler waters. While these waters are warm enough for Irene to maintain hurricane status as it treks up the East Coast into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, it won’t have as much punch as earlier anticipated.

The most recent forecast discussion from the NHC indicates that Irene will be weakening to a Category One Hurricane with winds up to 90 miles per hour within 12 hours. After that, the storm will be going over land and back over water for a stretch before it heads into New England in 48 hours as a strong tropical storm.

During that same 48 hours, the official NHC forecast track indicates that Irene will be over the Outer Banks of North Carolina by the middle of the afternoon on Saturday. The storm will be in the vicinity of Ocean City, Maryland on the Delmarva Peninsula by Saturday night, and bring its strongest rains and wind to New Jersey and New York City during the overnight on Saturday into Sunday before moving into Southern New England by mid-Sunday afternoon.

With all the details on the future intensity and track of Irene, we can now look at the latest watches and warnings. The Hurricane Warning has now been extended from north of Sandy Hook, New Jersey to Sagamore Beach in Massachusetts. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Sagamore Beach to the mouth of the Merrimack River. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the Merrimack River to Eastport Maine.

Now factoring all the updated watches and warnings, we have a Hurricane Warning in effect from Little River Inlet in North Carolina to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including the Pamlico, Albermarle, and Currituck Sounds, Delaware Bay, Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point, New York City, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet in North Carolina, the Chesapeake Bay from north of Drum Point to the Tidal Potomac, and from north of Sagamore Beach to the mouth of the Merrimack River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Merrimack River northward to Eastport, Maine.