Good morning everyone. Sorry that I haven’t put up a post in the past few days, but I’ve been caught up with work on other sites for clients of mine. Anyway, I have continued to watch the tropics with interest in not only the Atlantic, but also the Eastern Pacific. Obviously, this week has special meaning when it comes to the tropics, especially if you live along the Central Gulf Coast of the United States. Two years ago on Wednesday, Hurricane Katrina slammed into Southeastern Louisiana, and the Mississippi coastlines after becoming one of four Category Five Hurricanes that formed in the historic 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The anniversary was marked by rememberances, memorials, and even protest in the region as many are still dissatisifed with the pace of the rebuilding and recovery process. The government continues to perform miserably in the wake of this storm.

Meanwhile, things have picked up throughout the tropics for the first time in the wake of Hurricane Dean, which became the seventh Category Five Hurricane to form in the Atlantic in just the last five years. It was also the third most powerful Atlantic Hurricane to make landfall since records have been taken. Dean skirted the island nation of Jamaica after rolling through the Lesser Antilles, and then made two landfalls across Mexico. The first was in the Southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula near the town of Chetumal, and then the second was along the Mexican Gulf Coast near Tuxpan. Dean eventually weakened as it moved further inland, and encountered more rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre. Even after losing depression status, the storm’s remnants still held together well enough to bring high humidity and severe thunderstorms to Southern California including San Diego.

In the wake of Hurricane Dean, things have been quite tranquil in the tropics until the past couple days. Since that time the tropical waters in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific have picked up. The EPAC has been the most active thus far recently with a named storm, and a depression. Tropical Storm Gil became the seventh named storm of the 2007 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season as it formed first as a depression during the morning of August 29th, and then becoming a minimal tropical storm in the afternoon. Right on its heels was yet another depression, the eleventh of the season in the EPAC, TD 11-E, which developed during the day on August 30th. While Gil is no threat to any land areas at the moment, TD 11-E is in close proximity to the West Mexican coastline, particularly the resort areas including Acapulco. That is why you’ll notice that the NHC web site depicts a Public Advisory for TD 11-E, and not for Gil.

Moving over to the Atlantic Basin, there isn’t anything in the way of hurricanes, storms, or depressions, but that could very well change in the not too distant future. Right now, as I’m typing this article, there are five areas of concern in the region. First, there is a non-tropical low located several hundred miles off the coast of Northern Florida including Jacksonville. Now, this particular low formed during the early morning hours after another non-tropical low in a nearby location weakened on Wednesday night. Reconaissance aircraft was scheduled to fly into the system if necessary, but didn’t go out. Time is running out for this disturbance to become a tropical cyclone since a front that is accompanied by severe thunderstorms is expected to push it to the Northeast, and then overtake it in the next couple of days. Meanwhile, the other non-tropical low is now near the Georgia coast, and is currently disorganized, and shower activity is minimal. Moving into the Central Atlantic, we have probably our best threat of the group this evening. Located approximately some 525 miles from the Lesser Antilles, this tropical wave became better organized on Thursday, and is showing signs that it could become a depression in the next day or two.

Further east in the Eastern Atlantic, a few hundred miles from the Cape Verde Islands is another tropical disturbance. Centered approximately some 250 miles to the West-Southwest of the Portuguese island chain just off the West African coast, the wave still has a long way to go, and for the time being, shower activity is minimal, and development is expected to be slow. Finally, there is another tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico. This wave is expected to move over the main portion of Mexico in the next few hours, and head further inland. So, while no further development is expected, heavy rains, flooding, and landslides are quite possible in an area that was impacted by Hurricane Dean just a week earlier. The tropics are heating up again after a slight lull in the action, so be ready to make necessary preparations and precautions to protect yourself, others, and your property.