Dean Bringing Back Memories Of Hurricane Gilbert

Good morning everyone. Well things continue to get very interesting with Hurricane Dean, the first hurricane and major hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic season. The storm appeared to have gone through a reorganization phase, or eyewall replacement cycle during the day on Saturday. After reaching a peak intensity of 150 mph winds, Dean dropped a bit in that department down to 145 mph starting in the mid-afternoon. In addition, the wind field or diameter of the storm increased. Hurricane force winds extended some 70 miles from the eye while tropical storm force winds extended some 230 miles.

Then, in the late afternoon, things began to change with the storm has the pressure dropped some twelve millibars to 918 mb, or 27.11 inches of Hg at the 11 PM EDT Saturday evening advisory while the storm’s size seemed to shrink a bit with hurricane force winds extending 60 miles while tropical storm force winds extended some 205 miles. Looking at the 11 PM EDT discussion from the NHC, reconaissance aircraft detected concentric eyewalls and a double maxima, which is symptomatic of a storm going through such a replacement cycle. I’ll have more details on this in the Hurricaneville Storm Report, which is long overdue to have another update.

However, I wanted to talk now about the situation with the storm in the Caribbean, bearing down on the island of Jamaica, which hasn’t seen a direct hit from such a powerful storm since Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. Ironically, Gilbert, followed a similar track as to the one forecasted for Dean. Back in September 1988, Gilbert formed in the weeks leading up to my departure for college at Drexel University in Philadelphia. By the time it reached the islands, winds in Gilbert were already above minimal hurricane strength at 80 mph. However, following a track in the Southern Caribbean, the storm strengthened thanks to the very warm waters of that particular part of the world, and by the time it reached Jamaica, it had grown into a Category Four monster with 140 mph winds.

Gilbert decimated the island as it crossed it from one end to the another. The last storm to do that was Hurricane Charlie back in 1951. Forming on August 12, 1951, Charlie grew to be a Category Four Hurricane with winds peaking at 135 mph. When the storm began crossing the island, it had winds just below major hurricane strength at 110 mph with a minimum pressure of 964 millibars or 28.47 inches of Hg. It would be the deadliest and most devastating storm of that year as it killed over 250 people, and left some $75 million in damages ($583 million in today’s dollars). Gilbert was much more powerful as it went on to become the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, a mark that wouldn’t be broken until October 2005 when Hurricane Wilma strengthened to have winds of 185 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 882 millibars, or 26.05 inches of Hg. I can vividly remember the video footage from the local tv stations back here in New Jersey showing the devastation across Jamaica. It is amazing how tiny countries like that can recover at all from such a catastrophe. By the way, Typhoon Tip still holds the mark for the lowest pressure ever recorded on earth at 870 millibars, or 25.69 inches of Hg back in 1979.

Dean has the potential to do much the same to the island. As of now, its intensity is slightly stronger than what Gilbert was with 145 mph winds, and a pressure down near that of Hurricane Andrew when it made landfall in Homestead, Florida back in 1992. The official NHC storm track has the system heading either just south of the island, or moving over its southern tip, which means the brunt of the hurricane’s furty will be felt over the entire island since the northern semicircle is the stronger half due to the counterclockwise motion of the air rotating around the center, or eye. With conditions still ideal for further intensification, and no land masses in front of it to hinder strengthening, it is possible that Dean could be a Category Five by the time it reaches Jamaica later on Sunday.

Hurricane Ivan came very close to the island nation back in September, 2004 when it was flirting with Category Five intensity. Thankfully, Ivan just missed, but it did hit the Caymans quite hard before coming up across Western Cuba, and then into the Gulf where it eventually came ashore for the last time near the Florida and Alabama border on the Florida Panhandle. Hopefully, Jamaica will be lucky again, but right now, it doesn’t look good.